Barcelona's Bernabéu form suggests positive Copa outcome

Messi celebra un gol


Since the beginning of Guardiola era a decade ago, Barça have visited the home of their greatest rivals, Real Madrid, on several occasions.

If Barcelona are true to their form over the last decade*, since the explosive start of the Pep Guardiola era in the 2008-09 season, the statistics would suggest that they will overcome Real Madrid and make it to their sixth consecutive Copa del Rey final.

Barça boss the Bernabéu

The first leg of the 'Copa Clásico' semi-final ended 1-1 at the Camp Nou on Wednesday evening. With the away goals rule in play for Spain's domestic cup competition, Barça will reach the showpiece final in Seville if they win in the return fixture or if the game ends with a higher scoring draw. (Of course, if the second leg ends 1-1 then the tie will be decided on penalties).

Based on that, let us consider the results between these two teams at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu. Of the 16 encounters between these great rivals played there in the last decade, 10 of the results (62.5%) would see the Catalan giants progress. Nine of those games were won by the away side while the other ended 2-2. Twice over this period the capital Clásico ended with a goal apiece - which in our current scenario would take the tie to extra-time - and, therefore only four results from the 16 would see Los Blancos reach this season's final.

Barça score at the Bernabéu

With a goalless end to the second leg enough for Santiago Solari to pick out a favourite suit for the final, where they would face either Valencia or Real Betis, it's worth noting how the goals have played out in these games.

In 93.8% of the cases, Barça have scored at least once. That percentage reflects all but one of the games, the Spanish Super Cup at the beginning of last season when, some would argue, they were still in shock over Neymar's departure. Barcelona have certainly had a significant edge over their eternal rivals when it comes to sticking the ball in the net, scoring 36 over the ten years and conceding just 22. A +14 difference that has been highlighted with some historic wins: the 2-6, 0-4 and 0-3 in recent seasons, that have played their part in a white towel being thrown in for LaLiga by Christmas.

FC Barcelona results in the last decade against Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabéu


Result (Competition)

2017/18 2-0 (Super Cup), 0-3 (Liga)
2016/17 2-3 (Liga)
2015/16 0-4 (Liga)
2014/15 3-1 (Liga)
2013/14 3-4 (Liga)
2012/13 2-1 (Liga), 1-1 (Copa), 2-1 (Super Cup)
2011/12 1-2 (Liga), 1-3 (Copa), 2-2 (Super Cup)
2010/11 1-1 (Liga), 0-2 (Champions League)
2009/10 0-2 (Liga)
2008/09 2-6 (Liga)

The 16 games discussed above have their own back stories, and number 17 will create something new. Both sides are in a tough set of February fixtures, with Liga and Champions League commitments to contend with. The numbers above don't make for particularly good reading for Madrid fans, but they know that the first-leg result was a very positive first step.

*Clearly a decade's worth of form does not relate to a single one-off game...but it's interesting nonetheless.

Copa del Rey

Next matches
Real Madrid - Barcelona X-27/02 21:00

*Update 7 de febrero de 2019