Real Madrid on track to finish 5th this season in LaLiga

The club are struggling in both LaLiga and in the Champions League and a study reveals that current form could see Zidane's men ending the season in fifth place in the table.

Courtois, Lucas Vázquez y Varane se lamentan tras uno de los goles recibidos en el Shakhtar-Real Madrid de la Champions.

Real Madrid are experiencing a dramatic loss in form which has translated into just one win in their past five games in all competitions with Zidane's side only mnanaging a solitary one point from a possible 9 in LaLiga, and that came after an unconvincing display away to Villarreal. The major concern at the club is the panorama in Europe with Wednesday's game at home to Borrusia Monchengladbach arguably the match that could dictate the club's season. Madrid go into the tie with the possibility of topping their group but could also end up fourth and out of Europe.

A US based statistical analysts FiveThirtyEight study ascertains that the club have a 67% chance of progressing in Europa and a 65% chance of finishing in the top four in the LaLiga table but that could change with defeat away to Sevilla today. 

Crucial trip to the Sanchez Pizjuan

Lopetegui's men lie just behind Real Madrid in the table with the Andalusian side having played one game less. Based simply on the current runs of form for each side, Atlético Madrid are set to win the title with 97 points with Real Sociedad claiming second spot with 83 points. Villarreal bag third place with 69 points and Sevilla claim the final UCL place with 68 points. Madrid claim fifth place and FC Barcelona end in sixth.

The FiveThirtyEight study looks at more variants and sees Real Madrid finishing third with 71 points come season end and offer a 21% likelihood of this materialising with the company giving Zidane's men a 10% chance of retaining the league title, a 16% chance of ending second, and an 18%/35% of ending fourth or fifth respectively. 

Standings, season end based on current form / FiveThirtyEight prediction

1 Real Soc. 24 Atlético 97 Barcelona 82
2 Atlético** 23 Real Soc. 83 Atlético 79
3 Villarreal 20 Villarreal 69 R. Madrid 71
4 R. Madrid* 17 Sevilla 68 Real Soc. 70
5 Sevilla** 16 R. Madrid 65 Villarreal 65
6 Cádiz 15 Barcelona 59 Sevilla 62
7 Barcelona** 14 Elche 55 Getafe 50
8 Granada* 14 Granada 53 Athletic 50
9 Athletic 13 Cádiz 52 Celta 47
10 Elche** 13 Athletic 49 Osasuna 46
11 Getafe* 13 Getafe 49 Cádiz 46
12 Eibar 13 Eibar 45 Betis 45
13 Alavés 13 Alavés 45 Granada 45
14 Valencia 12 Osasuna 42 Valencia 44
15 Betis 12 Valencia 41 Eibar 43
16 Osasuna* 11 Betis 41 Alavés 42
17 Valladolid 10 Valladolid 35 Levante 41
18 Celta 10 Celta 35 Elche 38
19 Levante* 8 Levante 30 Valladolid 37
20 Huesca 7 Huesca 24 Huesca 36

* One game less.
** Two games less.

Source: FiveThirtyEight & AS.

Third worst start in 20 years

This is the third poorest start to a season for Real Madrid in 20 years with one having to go back to the 2001-2002 season when the Bernabeu club had just claimed 13 points after ten outings for a parallel start. Two seasons ago with Lopetegui, the club had just claimed 14 points after ten match-days and in both cases, the club ended up third in the final season standings.


Not all is doom and gloom for 'Madridistas' however, Real Madrid are accustomed to picking up speed (and points) as the season progresses with the club traditionally amassing a higher number of points in the final ten games of the campaign than in the opening phase amassing. This has been the case in 8 of the past 11 campaigns with the 2010/11, 15-/16 and 17-18 seasons bucking this trend.