A huge amount of doubt surrounds the ceremony’s top award. This might be the most wide-open Oscars in years. With no clear frontrunner, the preferential voting system will play a more crucial role than ever. Four films are currently considered to have a slight edge over their competitors.
Predicting this year’s Best Picture winner is no easy feat. The outcomes in major categories like Best Actor, Best Director, and Best Editing may offer clues. If the Academy leans toward a more traditional, less divisive choice, the Oscar could go to The Brutalist or A Complete Unknown. If risk-taking is rewarded, Emilia Pérez—assuming the controversy surrounding it doesn’t hold it back—or Anora will take home the gold. This was a year in which many presumed Oscar heavyweights—Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Megalopolis, Furiosa, and Beetlejuice Beetlejuice—fell short of expectations.
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Searchlight Pictures, a studio with a strong Oscar pedigree, is behind a biopic that could be the surprise winner. One of its producers is Fred Berger, who came heartbreakingly close with La La Land—he was on stage when the infamous envelope mix-up saw Moonlight crowned Best Picture instead. Searchlight’s track record speaks for itself, with Slumdog Millionaire, 12 Years a Slave, Birdman, The Shape of Water, and Nomadland all winning Best Picture in recent years.
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NIndie powerhouse NEON is backing Sean Baker’s latest film, following a string of high-profile releases including I, Tonya, Parasite (the 2019 Best Picture winner), Anatomy of a Fall, and cult hits like Portrait of a Lady on Fire and Border. NEON is partially owned by 30West, a firm led by American billionaire Dan Friedkin, who also owns AS Roma and Everton football clubs.
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Walter Salles’ Brazilian film edged out competitors like Sing, Sing, A Real Pain, and September 5. With Sony Pictures fully behind it, the film has secured three Oscar nominations. Sony has a strong history with international contenders, having previously pushed films like Howards End, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, Capote, Midnight in Paris, Amour, An Education, Call Me by Your Name, Whiplash, and The Father into Oscar contention. Salles himself is no stranger to the Oscars, having previously been nominated for Central Station and The Motorcycle Diaries.
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Focus Features, a subsidiary of Universal Studios, is once again in the race. Despite having 17 Best Picture nominations in its history, it has yet to win the category. Among its past contenders: Gosford Park, The Pianist, Lost in Translation, Brokeback Mountain, Atonement, Milk, A Serious Man, The Kids Are All Right, Dallas Buyers Club, The Theory of Everything, Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread, BlacKkKlansman, Promising Young Woman, Belfast, Tár, and The Holdovers. With Conclave, the studio hopes to finally break the streak.
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One of Hollywood’s most iconic studios, Warner Bros. has a long Oscar history. Classics like Casablanca, The Life of Emile Zola, Driving Miss Daisy, and Unforgiven all won Best Picture. In the 21st century, the studio reclaimed Oscar glory with Million Dollar Baby and The Departed but hasn’t won since Argo (2012). Every year, Warner Bros. secures a major contender—recent nominees include Barbie, Elvis, Joker, Gravity, Mad Max: Fury Road, and Dunkirk.
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A record-breaking 13 nominations make this the most-nominated foreign-language film in Oscar history, surpassing Roma and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. It’s in prime position to win Best International Feature and is also favored in categories like Best Supporting Actress (Zoe Saldaña) and Best Original Song. Netflix is still chasing its elusive Best Picture win, having previously fallen short with Roma, Marriage Story, The Irishman, Mank, The Trial of the Chicago 7, The Power of the Dog, Don’t Look Up, All Quiet on the Western Front, and Maestro.
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One of the biggest surprises this year is the inclusion of a horror film in the Best Picture race—only the seventh time in history. To date, The Silence of the Lambs remains the only horror film to win. The others: The Exorcist, Jaws, The Sixth Sense, Black Swan, and Get Out. Veteran producers Eric Fellner and Tim Bevan, who have amassed multiple Oscar nominations, are behind The Substance. Streaming service MUBI is handling its U.S. distribution.
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Amazon MGM Studios has a film in the final lineup, bringing the experience of Orion Pictures (a four-time Best Picture winner) and Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer under the Amazon umbrella. Jeff Bezos’ company has long been in pursuit of Oscar gold, previously backing Manchester by the Sea, Women Talking, and American Fiction. The film is also supported by Plan B, the production company led by Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner, who have already helped 12 Years a Slave and Moonlight win Best Picture.
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A24, in partnership with Focus Features, is betting on The Brutalist. The indie studio has been on a roll at the Oscars, winning Best Picture twice in recent years with Moonlight and Everything Everywhere All at Once. This marks its eighth Best Picture nomination, following Room, Lady Bird, Minari, Past Lives, and The Zone of Interest. A24 is also in this year’s race with Sing, Sing, though it isn’t in the Best Picture category.
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Universal is hoping to continue its Oscars dominance after winning with Oppenheimer last year and Green Book earlier this decade. The studio’s musical contender is backed by renowned producer Marc Platt, who has come close three times with Bridge of Spies, La La Land, and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Universal has secured ten Best Picture wins in its history, including classics like The Sting, Schindler’s List, Gladiator, and A Beautiful Mind.
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With the preferential voting system favoring less polarizing films, The Brutalist could emerge victorious. If Academy members make it through its ambitious 215-minute runtime and appreciate its modern epic scale, the film could mark a return to form for traditionally crafted American cinema. A worthy winner in one of the most unpredictable Oscar races in years.
