1.24 billion barrels of oil flood the oceans; those responsible are sought, and some look to the ‘American wave’

Our planet’s oceans have never been busier. Tankers loaded with oil are crisscrossing the seas in record numbers, carrying an estimated 1.24 billion barrels of crude — an all-time high, according to energy analytics firm Vortexa.

That figure underscores a growing imbalance in the oil market: production keeps climbing, even as demand starts to cool. The result? An oversupply that’s pushing prices down and raising fresh questions about who’s responsible for this global glut.

Production booms, demand fades

The surge stems from two key forces. First, oil-producing nations — especially those in OPEC+, including Russia — have eased the production cuts imposed in previous years. Second, emerging producers like Guyana and the United States are hitting record output levels.

Longer shipping routes, particularly across Asia, are amplifying the effect. The more miles crude travels, the more oil is effectively “in transit” at any given moment, swelling global supply and storage on the move.

Between March and September, OPEC+ members added more than 2 million barrels per day to the market, led by Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates. Most of that oil is heading to China and India, the world’s biggest energy consumers, which continue to absorb much of the excess.

The ‘American Wave’ shakes up the market

But there’s another piece to this puzzle — what analysts are calling the “American wave.”

The United States has reached a record 13.6 million barrels per day in crude output, cementing its position as the world’s top producer. Meanwhile, Guyana — whose oil boom is often symbolized by its “Golden Arrowhead” national emblem — has rapidly become a major exporter, reshaping global shipping patterns.

As a result, the number of supertankers making six-week journeys from the Americas to Asia has soared to unprecedented levels, further congesting maritime trade routes.

A global oil traffic jam

The consequences are already rippling through the energy market. Oil prices have fallen 18% so far in 2025, and analysts warn that if consumption keeps slowing, a surplus of up to four million barrels per day could flood the market early next year.

For now, one thing is clear: the world’s oil oversupply is once again steering the course of the global economy — and the US is right at the center of the storm.

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