2022 Midterm Elections: How likely is voter fraud? Are the election results safe and reliable?

The United States is entering dangerous waters when it comes to the spreading of misinformation surrounding voter fraud in the country. Throughout the nation’s history, who can vote, has always been a politically charged question. Now, with historic levels of suffrage, conservative lawmakers are raising doubts about the way those votes are cast and, to a lesser extent, who is doing the casting. Thirty-four states have laws that require a government-issued ID be shown when a person goes to vote. Eleven percent of eligible voters in the United States do not have a government-issued ID, according to the ACLU, which noted that low-income, disabled, and racial minorities are disproportionally represented in this group totaling more than twenty-one million residents. The passage of laws to increase the availability of ID services to these communities, to ensure that their vote can be cast and verified, are not often on the agenda of these lawmakers.

But the national conversation on voter fraud has been transformed after the 2020 election of Joe Biden because the concerns are not over individual voters (although this is still heavily policed) but the legitimacy of the election altogether. President Donald Trump made false claims that the election was “stolen” and that efforts to steal it were “coordinated.” To enlarge an issue like voter impersonation is one political weapon, to make false claims about a legal election knowingly is a direct attack on the remaining crumbs of democracy that have not been scarfed down by corporations.

A 2014 study conducted by researchers at Princeton University and Northeastern University conducted a study to identify different factors that had an impact on congressional action. The pair found that public opinion had a “near-zero” impact on Congressional action. There are real structural problems with ‘democracy’ in the United States, and not because of corruption on election day but because of the ways unregulated and vast amounts of money have weakened the voice of those who are struggling the most. In 2020, a third of eligible voters did not cast a ballot. This level of absentation represents a failure of American civic life and is evidence that neither major party stands ready with a message and vision for the future that aligns with the needs of millions.

Are we in a democracy death spiral?

It is not just Democrats who see the danger in attempts to undermine election results without sufficient evidence.

Minutes before a Trump-supporting mob entered the US Capitol on January 6th, Senate Minority Leder Mitch McConnel urged members of his party to certify the results, saying, “The voters, the courts, and the states have all spoken. They’ve all spoken. If we overrule them, it would damage our Republic forever.”

Sen. McConnell was concerned that if Senators voted to overturn the results, US democracy could enter a “death spiral” where the peaceful transition of power would be called into question each time elections reared their head.

The question of Kari Lake

Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, who has been endorsed by Donald Trump, has struggled to say that she would accept the results of the election if she lost.

Lake has said that she would not question the result so long as the election was “fair, honest, and transparent.” Duh. Any candidate can make the same comment. More recently, Lake told CNN’s Dana Bash that since she is “going to win the election,” she “will accept that result.” These comments appear to be quite unfair, dishonest, and opaque.

Lake is ahead in the polls, which, as many experts learned the hard way, does not mean she will win on November 8th. Unfortunately, a lead in the polls could be used by Lake as evidence of fraud should her opponent Katie Hobbs receive more votes.

Can you trust the results?

Voters should feel confident in the election results as they are recorded by counties and states. There are legal procedures that dictate so much of what goes on before, during, and after voting has occurred.

Investigations into the allegations of widespread voter fraud, even by Trump loyalists, have been debunked allegations of fraud during the 2020 election. The Associated Press conducted an investigation and found in Arizona, where allegations of thousands of fraudulent ballots had been added to the count, researchers estimated that at most 198 cases could be classified as fraudulently cast. Additionally, to combat the lies that the efforts to cast ballots illegally were coordinated, the AP said that “virtually every case was based on an individual acting alone to cast additional ballots.”

In Georgia, the Secretary of State, Brad Raffensperger, a Republican, released a review of the claims of fraud made in the 2020 election and highlighted that there was no evidence that the claims were true. Sec. Raffensperger, at the behest of the Trump campaign, “conducted a statewide hand recount that reaffirmed the initial tally, and a machine recount.”

“This audit disproves the only credible allegations the Trump campaign had against the strength of Georgia’s signature match processes.” This press release was put out in mid-December, and the president continued to make claims about fraud in Georgia for weeks, leading election officials and workers to become targets of hate, death threats, and other forms of harassment. Some of the victims of these attacks were heard from during the hearings from the House Committee on January 6th.

We should be worried about our democracy, but first, we must more systemically understand the threats it faces.