Are the winners of the Golden Globes the favorites for the Oscars?

The Golden Globe awards have been handed out and the precedent has been set for the Academy Awards! Or has it?

For years, the Golden Globes ceremony has been seen as a sort of preview to the Oscars. But in reality, they are voted on by completely different groups of people of completely different sizes, the categories are a bit different, and the track record for accurately predicting Oscar winners based on Golden Globe winners isn’t all that great.

The Golden Globes is the Academy’s funkier, drunker sibling. It may have some similarities, but it’s its own personality.

Golden Globes vs Academy Awards

The 2023 Golden Globes concluded on Tuesday and the 2023 Academy Awards will be presented on March 12. Can we make accurate Oscar predictions based on Tuesday’s winners? It’s tempting, but unlikely to work well.

The Hollywood Foreign Press is composed of fewer than 100 members who vote on the Golden Globes. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences is much, much bigger, with over 8,000 voters. There is no overlap in voters. The HFPA members are (foreign, but mostly white) journalists and photographers in the entertainment industry. The Academy members are people who work in the film industry, like directors, writers, editors, producers, etc. They tend to vote differently and have different preferences.

So just because The Banshees of Inisherin won Best Picture - Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes does not mean it will win Best Picture at the Oscars. In fact, the structure of the award itself is telling of that. The Golden Globes are split into different categories based on genre - Best Picture - Drama, Best Picture - Musical or Comedy, Best TV Series - Drama, Best TV Series - Musical or Comedy, and so on. Whereas the Oscars are not split at all, with just one Best Picture, Best Actor, etc.

For the screenplay awards, it’s slightly different though. The Oscars actually do split the Best Screenplay award into two categories - Adapted and Original. The Golden Globes, on the other hand, have just one award for Screenplays and there are just five nominees of either adapted or original screenplays.

The Academy tends to favor dramas over musicals or comedies. Yet, even knowing The Fabelmans won Best Picture - Drama at the Golden Globes does not necessarily mean that it will win Best Picture at the Oscars (though it is at the top of predictions). In fact, just around half of Golden Globe winners will go on to win an Oscar, so it’s really anyone’s guess.

There does tend to be more overlap in the acting categories, though. Of the last 31 Best Actress Academy Award winners, 27 also won the Golden Globe that year. Of the last 31 Best Actor Academy Award winners, 25 won Golden Globes that year.

But if you’re looking to make accurate Oscar predictions, look instead at the Producers Guild of America Awards. Unlike the Golden Globes, there is quite an overlap in members between the PGA and the Academy.

The PGA Awards have correctly predicted the Best Picture winner 23 out of 32 times. The 2023 PGA Awards ceremony will be held in February 25. The Academy Awards will be held on March 12.

Who are the favorites to win the Oscars 2023?

But let’s see which films and actors are actually the favorites to win the Academy Awards this year and if there is any overlap with the Golden Globes winners. Here, you’ll see, there is quite a bit of overlap.

Best Picture:

Best Actress:

Best Actor:

Best Director:

Best Animated Film:

Best Supporting Actress:

Best Supporting Actor:

Best Screenplay: