Beware of extreme heat: Rising temperatures are claiming more lives than ever in the U.S.

Data is clearly demonstrating an alarming upward trend in heat-related mortality in the U.S., directly linked to rising temperatures and intensifying heat waves driven by climate change.

According to an Associated Press analysis of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data, 2023 set a record for U.S. heat deaths, with more than 2,300 people whose death certificates mentioned the effects of excessive heat. This is the highest number in 45 years of records.

Research published in medical network JAMA indicates that heat-related mortality rates in the US have more than doubled from 1999 to 2023, with a particularly sharp increase of 16.8% per year from 2016 onwards, coinciding with escalating global temperatures.

Provisional CDC data shows 1,714 heat-related fatalities in 2022. This is a substantial increase from 297 deaths in 2004 and 1,008 in 2018.

The National Weather Service and CDC data consistently show that heat causes more deaths annually than hurricanes, floods, and tornadoes combined in the U.S. over the past three decades.

Experts widely agree that official death certificate data likely underestimates the true number of heat-related deaths. Heat often exacerbates underlying conditions like heart attacks, strokes, respiratory diseases, or kidney failure, and these may be listed as the primary cause of death, even if heat was a significant contributing factor. Some statistical approaches estimate the actual number of deaths linked to extreme heat to be much higher than officially recorded. For example, during the 1995 Chicago heat wave, only 465 deaths were classified as heat-related on certificates, but statistical methods estimated about 700 excess deaths.

Future trend

Climate change is increasing the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves. Projections indicate that if current trends continue, the number of extreme heat-related deaths will continue to rise significantly in the coming decades. Some studies project thousands of additional deaths per year by mid-century under higher emissions scenarios.

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