The Medog Hydropower Project faces the risk of structural failure because it is being built on an active seismic zone in southern Tibet that is prone to earthquakes.

Maxisheng18
Science

China raises the alarm at its mega-dam near Tibet: a geological fault could destabilize its Himalayan project

Update:

A team of Chinese geologists has warned that what is expected to become the world’s largest hydropower project could face a serious risk of collapse because its foundations are being built along the course of a major river south of the Tibetan Plateau.

The warning, published in the academic journal Sedimentary Geology and Tethyan Geology under the supervision of the China Geological Survey, highlights the geological instability of the region where the Medog Dam is being constructed.

Designed to harness the waters of the Yarlung Zangbo River, better known downstream as the Brahmaputra River, the project is expected to become the largest hydroelectric development in the world upon completion, surpassing China’s renowned Three Gorges Dam.

High earthquake risk

Construction began in July of last year in an upper stretch of the river known as the “Great Bend.”

The project is designed to capitalize on a vertical drop of nearly 6,600 feet over a distance of about 31 miles as the river flows through the steep valleys of the Himalayas. However, a study conducted by Chengdu University of Technology has raised concerns about the area’s elevated earthquake risk due to the Paizhen Fault.

According to the researchers, this major fault in the Earth’s crust is capable of generating powerful earthquakes and has remained highly active since the Pleistocene Epoch. The resulting unstable terrain increases the likelihood of landslides on the mountain slopes that will support the future megaproject.

“Regional seismic activity could trigger landslides and slope failures, threatening both the structural integrity of the project and the safety of construction personnel,” the report concludes.

To reduce those risks, the researchers recommend reinforcing the surrounding slopes and implementing additional landslide mitigation measures.

A controversial project

The Medog Dam is part of China’s broader effort to expand hydropower generation from rivers that originate on the Tibetan Plateau.

Once completed, a milestone currently projected for 2033, the facility is expected to generate approximately 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually by harnessing the power of the Yarlung Zangbo River.

The project has also raised concerns downstream in India and Bangladesh, where the river is known as the Brahmaputra and the Jamuna, respectively. Officials and experts worry that the dam could reduce water flow along one of the region’s most important river systems.

The controversy has fueled broader criticism that China is using its control over Tibet’s headwaters as a strategic geopolitical tool. The Tibetan Plateau is the source of several of the world’s longest rivers, making it a critical water resource for hundreds of millions of people across Asia.

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