Could asteroid YR4 impact Earth? Scientists have until May to find the answer and the solution

NASA experts have confirmed that asteroid 2024 YR4 could potentially collide with Earth. In response, the United Nations activated the Planetary Security Protocol for the first time in history following the impact alert issued on Wednesday, February 5, 2025.

When was Asteroid 2024 YR4 discovered?

Last December, the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile discovered near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4, which is estimated to be about 130 to 300 feet (40-90 meters) wide and travelling at 17.32 km/s - large enough to cause localized damage if it does strike our planet.

It is currently approximately 30 million miles from Earth. According to experts, the asteroid was detected after it passed close to Earth on December 25.

The ATLAS observatory in Chile revealed that this remarkable asteroid has been classified at Level 3 on the Torino Scale, based on 347 observations over the past 46 days. What does that mean exactly? Essentially, it indicates that there is no alarming danger. This category signifies a very low probability of a collision with Earth, and the potential consequences are estimated to be minor.

“A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away”.

Torino Scale Level 3

As more observations of the asteroid’s orbit are obtained, its impact probability will become better known. It is also possible its impact probability will continue to rise.

The Torino Scale, adopted by the IAU in 1999, was developed to communicate the risk of asteroid impacts - ranges from 0 to 10 with associated color coding. A Level 3 classification suggests that while the asteroid warrants attention, it is not expected to pose a significant threat

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