Does Iran have nuclear weapons?

Tensions continue to escalate in the Middle East after Israel decided to retaliate for the Iranian attack the regime launched against the country last Sunday. Iran’s attack was a retaliatory action for an Israeli attack on the country’s consulate in Syria, which killed two top generals and fourteen civilians. The United States had urged Israel to stand down after the Iranian strike, focusing on the success of Israel’s defense system and the support of allies to bring down Iranian drones, missiles, and other projectiles. Israeli government officials had other plans and have struck the Iranian city of Isfahan.

Iran is not currently thought to be a nuclear power, but such reports cannot be confirmed because of the layers of secrecy that surround the country’s nuclear program. Israel, on the other hand, is known to have nuclear weapons, but their existence has never been confirmed publically by the government. In February, three US national security experts published an opinion piece in The Washington Post titled “Why the U.S. should start telling the world about Israel’s nukes.” The article came after various Israeli government officials had talked openly about striking Gaza with a nuclear weapon, which would constitute an egregious war crime and destabilize not only the region but the entire world.

Which countries have confirmed that they have nuclear weapons?

A nuclear weapon has never been used in warfare. However, the atomic bomb, which proceeded nuclear weapons, was used by the United States in World War II against Japan. The US Air Force dropped two atomic bombs on the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, killing up to 146,000 people. While weapons capable of this level of destruction have not been used since that does not mean nations haven’t continued developing and stockpiling these powerful weapons. However, only a handful of countries possess nuclear weapons. These are:

Russia holds the top spot with an estimated stockpile of around 5,997 nuclear warheads, while the United States follows closely behind with approximately 5,428 nuclear weapons. These two countries alone hold roughly 90% of the world’s total estimated nuclear arsenal of nearly 13,080 warheads, according to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons.

There are two main treaties that address preventing the spread of nuclear weapons beyond these nations. The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) is the cornerstone international agreement for nuclear non-proliferation. Established in 1968, it has 191 member states. Only South Sudan, India, Israel, and Pakistan remain outside the treaty.

The second is the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). This newer treaty, adopted in 2017 and entering into force in 2021, takes a more radical stance. It completely outlaws nuclear weapons, prohibiting their development, testing, possession, and use by member states. It has 93 signatories.

Only two nations in history have given up their nuclear arsenal: Ukraine and South Africa.

How many nuclear weapons does Iran have?

Iran coming into the possession of a nuclear weapon has been a major concern for the United States and its allies for over a decade. During the Obama administration, steps were taken after it was discovered that Iran had begun enriching uranium. However, Iran maintains that its program is for peaceful purposes, and international inspections haven’t revealed evidence of a weapons program so far. It currently has no nuclear weapons.

In 2015, Iran reached the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with world powers. This deal aimed to limit Iran’s uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief. Under the JCPOA, Iran agreed to:

In 2018, the US withdrew from the JCPOA under the Trump administration, re-imposing sanctions on Iran. In response, Iran gradually started exceeding the JCPOA’s enrichment limits and expanding its stockpile. Some national security experts called on Presidnet Biden to restart negotiations and sign an agreement with Iran when he took office, but so far, no efforts have been made.