ELECTIONS
Does the winner of the Iowa caucus typically win the general election?
GOP voters in Iowa will head out tomorrow night to caucus in the first election of the primary season. Do winners of the caucus typically win the White House?
The Iowa caucuses have been a long-standing tradition since the 1800s. In an expression of participatory democracy, the GOP voters in the state will go out on Monday night to show their support for their preferred candidate. Although there is considerable attention on Iowa in the early stages of most presidential campaigns, some critics argue that Iowa’s demographics make it a poor first state to host a primary because it does not represent the broader electorate’s demographics. Based on this critique, the Democratic Party will host their first primary in South Carolina, meaning only Republicans will be caucusing this week.
Iowa’s voting record compared to the rest of the country
When it comes to how often Iowa voters have correctly predicted the winner of the general election or the party’s primary, the results are mixed. Aside from incumbent presidential candidates who face little opposition during the primaries, one must travel back to 2008 to find an example where the winner of the Iowa caucus went on to win a major party’s nomination. In 2008, then-Senator from Illinois Barack Obama won the Iowa caucus.
In 2012, the incumbent president, Barack Obama, secured Iowa’s electoral college votes easily during the primary. On the Republican side, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum beat then-former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney, who would go on to secure the nomination.
In 2016, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton beat Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders by less than a percent, which came as a surprise to the Clinton campaign. Donald Trump would go on to win the presidency later that year, but at the Iowa caucus, Texas Senator Ted Cruz garnered the greatest support, beating Trump by a little more than three percent.
In 2020, only the Democrats hosted a caucus, and then-candidate Biden came in fourth place after Pete Buttigieg, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren. President Trump easily won the Iowa caucuses, facing little competition as the incumbent candidate.
| Year | Iowa Caucus Winners | Primary Election Winner | General Election Winner | ||
| Democrat | Republican | Democrat | Republican | ||
| 1992 | Tom Harkin | George H. W. Bush (Incumbent) | Bill Clinton | George H. W. Bush | Bill Clinton |
| 1996 | Bill Clinton (Incumbent) | Bob Dole | Bill Clinton | Bob Dole | Bill Clinton |
| 2000 | Al Gore | George W. Bush | Al Gore | Geoge W Bush | George W Bush |
| 2004 | John Kerry | George W. Bush (Incumbent) | John Kerry | George W Bush | George W Bush |
In 1992 and 2000, voters in Iowa voted for the candidates that would make it to the November ballot.