Dollar exchange rate with major currencies and crude oil prices today, 14 July

Hopes that inflation had peaked were dashed on Wednesday when the consumer price index report for June exceeded the 8.6 percent registered in May. Taken together with the stronger than expected jobs report last week, the case is building for a supersized rate hike when Federal Reserve policymakers meet at the end of July.

There had been talk of a three-quarters of a percentage point increase, but now a 100 basis points jump could be in the offing. The current rate sits at 1.5 percent but a hike of the magnitude being tossed around would take levels to their highest since 2018, but still low compared to those prior to the Great Recession.

Recession fears and central bank policy strengthen dollar

Canada was the first among the world’s advanced economies to hike rates by a full percentage point. The European Central Bank will likely begin its own course of rate hiking next week, but likely with a more modest quarter point boost. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan looks set to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy with the governor warning of “very high uncertainty” in the economic outlook and stressing a willingness to ramp up stimulus when needed to sustain a fragile recovery.

These actions and the fear of recession in advanced economies have strengthened the dollar in comparison to its counterparts. Sterling hit another two-year low against the dollar on Thursday, while the yen hit a 24-year low against the greenback.

Most watched though has been the performance of the euro which finally reached parity after weeks of falling against the surging dollar. Inflation, driven by fallout of the war in Ukraine, has dampened the economic outlook prompting fears of a recession in member nations giving the eurozone scrip a hammering. There are expectations that the European common currency could fall below the dollar.

US dollar exchange rates

Economic slowdowns driving slump in price of crude oil

While a strong dollar is good news for those who plan to travel abroad this summer, the cost of flights to get their may make their eyes water. Gone are the incredibly cheap deals available during the pandemic with the price of airline fare a whopping 34 percent from last year. This has been due to rising demand and compounded by the rising fuel costs that spiked after Russia invaded Ukraine and Western nations imposed sanctions on energy exports from the aggressor.

In March Brent crude peak at just below $135 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) came close to $124. As fears grow of recessions in advanced economies and covid prompting a potential slowdown in China the price of oil has slid toward the $100 per barrel mark, falling below it on Tuesday.

Early morning trading on Thursday had prices falling yet again. Here is where the price stood at the end of trading on Wednesday.

Crude oil prices