Experts warn that higher gas prices could soon be seen along the West Coast: Here’s why
West Coast gas prices may rise as California refinery closures cut supply. EIA warns of shortages, possibly increasing imports despite tariffs.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration, part of the Department of Energy, issued a warning earlier this week: drivers along the West Coast should prepare for higher prices at the pump.
As of Friday, July 11, 2025, drivers were paying $4.53 per gallon in California, $4.01 in Oregon, and $4.40 in Washington for regular-grade fuel, according to AAA. Compared to the same time last year, prices are lower in California and Oregon, but higher in Washington.
Why are prices set to increase?
The EIA warns that prices are likely to rise due to upcoming refinery closures in California. With two facilities set to shut down over the next year, the state is expected to lose around 17% of its refining capacity. “If realized, the closure of the facilities is likely to contribute to increases in fuel price volatility on the West Coast,” the agency cautioned.
Phillips 66 announced plans to close its Wilmington refinery near Long Beach by the end of 2025. The facility currently refines about 139,000 barrels of petroleum per day. In Northern California, Valero plans to shutter its Benicia refinery by April 2026, which has a capacity of around 145,000 barrels per day.
These closures follow two others over the past five years that have already contributed to higher pump prices due to reduced supply. The EIA divides the country into regions known as Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts, or PADDs. PADD 5 covers the West Coast and includes Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington. Since the first closure in 2020, refining capacity in the region has declined from approximately 2.8 million barrels per day in April 2019 to 2.5 million in April 2025.
For California drivers, the loss of these two refineries represents nearly one-fifth of the state’s refining capacity. For the broader West Coast region—PADD 5, which includes Alaska, Arizona, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington—these facilities account for about 11% of total capacity, meaning the impact will likely be felt across the district.
Maintaining supply may require increased fuel imports
The EIA also pointed to logistical challenges in boosting supply as these refineries go offline, “given the limited connectivity to other U.S. refining hubs.” Gasoline retailers may look to Asian markets to offset the supply loss. However, with high tariffs on imports, drivers could see those costs reflected at the pump. A baseline tariff of 10% currently applies to most imports, but that figure is set to rise for many countries on August 1. California’s strict environmental standards for fuel also complicate efforts to maintain a steady supply. Still, the EIA noted that Phillips 66 is working to “produce some California-grade gasoline at its refinery in Washington, and some refineries in India and South Korea can meet these specifications.”
Get your game on! Whether you’re into NFL touchdowns, NBA buzzer-beaters, world-class soccer goals, or MLB home runs, our app has it all. Dive into live coverage, expert insights, breaking news, exclusive videos, and more – plus, stay updated on the latest in current affairs and entertainment. Download now for all-access coverage, right at your fingertips – anytime, anywhere.