US Energy outlook shows increased fossil fuel production in 2022 and 2023
After the Senate passed the most extensive climate package, the EIA predicts major fossil fuel production increases this year and next.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has reported the US energy imports for May.
Russian energy resource imports fell to zero following the Biden administration’s product ban. Following the import prohibition, gasoline prices grew to their highest prices of all time, leading to a surge in inflation as transportation costs skyrocket. Not helping inflation is the greed of major corporations reporting record profits as households try to keep up.
To fill the gap in imports from Russia and the subsequent increase in demand at home and in Europe, US oil producers are rapidly increasing production. The EIA believes that oil production will hit 11.9 million barrels a day (b/d) by the end of the year. Next year, the agency expects the 2019 record of 12.3 million b/d to be shattered, with production hitting an average of 12.7 million b/d. These record-shattering projections come after the Senate adopted the most significant package to combat climate change. The investments are expected to increase the current emissions reduction trajectory to up to forty percent from around twenty-five percent, compared to 2005 levels.
Crude Oil, Petrolium, and Gasoline
The EIA also expects the consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will increase in the coming years:
- 2021: 98.1 million b/d
- 2022 (projection): 99.4 million b/d
- 2023 (projection): 101.5 million b/d.
Without significant efforts to decrease the use of fossil fuels, increase energy from renewable sources or reduce energy consumption altogether, greenhouse gas emissions will increase globally over the coming year. At a time when the science could not be more clear, and the real-world examples of the record heat being felt worldwide, taking such a gamble on emissions is extremely dangerous.
Natural Gas
Natural gas consumption tells a similar story, with the EIA forecasting a three percent increase to 85.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) by the end of this year, compared to 2021 levels. While communities around the country are battling record heat, much of the increase in 2022 was “consumption reflects increased consumption in the residential and commercial sectors as a result of colder temperatures on average in 2022 than in 2021.” Climate change does not just mean more warming, it brings with with it more extreme temperatures to levels. However, unlike petroleum, the EIA does expect consumption to drop to an average of 83.8 Bcf/d in 2023. This does not mean that production will decrease as well. The US is expected to increase exports of liquified natural gas to 12.7 Bcf/d in 2023 from a projected average of 11.2 Bcf/d this year.
Coal
Coal production follows a similar trend to that of natural gas. While consumption is expected to decrease due to “constraints on coal generation and mine shutdowns as well as coal transportation limitations,” production and exports are projected to rise.
| Coal (in million short son) | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Production | 578 MMst | 599 MMst | 601 MMst |
| Consumption | 546 MMst | 541 MMst | 493 MMst |
| Exports | 85 MMst | 87 MMst | 98 MMst |
Renewables and a look towards the future
The US energy outlook is mixed. The investments in renewables are expected to grow, particularly after the tax credits and other incentives included the Inflation Reduction Act, but it is unclear whether the gains will be enough to offset possible increases in the production and consumption of fossil fuel energy sources.
“We expect renewable sources will provide 22% of US generation in 2022 and 24% in 2023, up from 20% in 2021,” reads the report.
The House of Representatives are supposed to take up the bill this week with most leaders saying they are confident it will be passed.