Fear in the US of a “major offensive” by Russia
The ISW is analyzing the “operational pause” announced by the Russian Ministry of Defense and fears that the Kremlin may launch a big attack on Ukraine.
A new update from the Institute for War Studies (ISW) seeks to shed some light on how the Russian invasion of Ukraine may evolve in the coming days and weeks. The US-based think tank is analyzing the “operational pause” announced by the Russian Ministry of Defense and has concluded that a “major offensive” could be imminent.
According to the ISW, the pause announced by the Kremlin may not last long: “When the Russian command decides that it managed to adequately prepare for the resumption of a major offensive, it will probably resume it with a greater number of troops and greater decision”.
#Russian-backed occupation authorities in #Kharkiv Oblast stated that Kharkiv Oblast is an “inalienable part of Russian land,” indicating that the #Kremlin likely intends to annex part or all of Kharkiv Oblast.
— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) July 9, 2022
Read the latest: https://t.co/n1sUSqhDdt pic.twitter.com/bU1CvHEFDs
How can Ukraine defend against further advances?
There are concerns that the Ukrainian army may be forced to respond to a renewed enemy advance towards Siversk. The Russian military has far more trained personnel and they could use the Siversk offensive to launch a full offensive towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, key Ukrainian-held locations in the Donetsk region.
“Russian troops had little success southeast of Siversk and continued their offensive west of Lisichansk,” the ISW has reported.
However Russian forces used artillery to bombard the towns of Dibrovne, Bogorodychny, Adamivka, Karnaukhivka and Suligivka, which is northwest of Siversk. At the moment, and according to Ukrainian military sources, the operational pause announced by Russia is not being observed.
Russia “continues to attack and bombard our lands with the same intensity as before,” Ukrainian officials have claimed.
Truly grateful to 🇺🇸 President @POTUS, the 🇺🇸 people for continuing effective support of 🇺🇦 in countering Russia's aggression. More #HIMARS, 155mm shells are our priority needs. It is what helps us press on the enemy. We appreciate the 🇺🇸 support! Let's go to victory together!
— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) July 8, 2022
Tactical pause could be a chance to regroup
The ISW has speculated about how Russian forces will continue with the next stage of the invasion. As we have seen at various points since the conflict began in February, the Kremlin sometimes uses brief pauses in fighting to restock, replenish, and reposition forces before continuing the attack.
When doing so, the ISW suggests that Russia tries to keep the enemy guessing: “The smart campaign plan is aimed at convincing the enemy that there will be no pause, or that it will be too short to reap its benefits.”
In recent days the Russian Ministry of Defense, which did not announce a significant troop advance in the last week, has warned that it will continue to attack the weapons sent by the West to Ukraine.
Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to the Ukrainian president, has stated that the HIMARS systems donated by the US has provided significant support for their cause.