Groundhog Day 2024: how was the success in previous years?

Today is the fateful day in which Punxsutawney Phil will give their view on how the weather in spring will develop. If Phil sees his shadow, it is believed that there will be six more weeks of winter. If he doesn’t see his shadow, it’s believed that spring will come early.

Since the turn of the millenium, Punxsutawney Phil has made 22 predictions, offering a mix of early springs and prolonged winters. Out of these predictions, Phil has forecasted an early spring six times and predicted six more weeks of winter on the remaining 16 occasions.

The rodent’s accuracy rate is relatively low when compared to meteorological forecasts. The Groundhog Day organisers claim that Phil’s predictions are accurate about 39% of the time. Furthermore, the National Centers for Environmental Information has judged that the last ten years of results have shown a 40% success rate.

The success rate of these predictions is more of a fun aspect rather than a scientifically accurate measure of weather forecasting. How could a groundhog accurately guess the weather anyway?

Where does the tradition come from?

The tradition of predicting weather based on the behavior of animals around the midpoint between the winter solstice and the spring equinox has been a part of various cultures for centuries. The celebration specifically tied to a groundhog’s shadow or lack thereof is believed to have originated in Germany.