Here’s how the Social Security COLA could change if Kamala Harris wins the election, according to experts

Kamala Harris has not made Social Security a pillar of her campaign. Instead, the Democratic nominee has focused on abortion rights, immigration, and what she calls the creation of an “opportunity economy.”

This year, the Social Security Administration announced that the COLA (Cost-of-living Adjustment) offered to beneficiaries of the programs it oversees will see their benefits increase by 2.5 percent in 2025. The COLA offered this year was 3.2 percent; in 2023, it reached 8.7 percent. While prices are still increasing, the pace at which they are rising has slowed, leading to a lower COLA for 2025.

Neither the vice president nor Donald Trump has campaigned on altering how the COLA is calculated or other commitments to ensure Social Security benefits increase in value.

The math behind the current calculation

Currently, the COLA is calculated using the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) and by comparing data from the third quarter (July, August, and September) to the same average from the previous year. Senior rights advocates have raised concerns that the CPI-W is an ineffective indicator for determining the COLA, as it fails to consider some spending categories that are more specific to seniors and of greater importance. The BLS has developed another ‘experimental indicator’ called the CPI- for the Elderly (CPI-E) that weighs spending categories like “healthcare” more than the CPI-W. If the SSA had used the CPI-E to determine the 2025 COLA, it would hit 3 percent.

In September, the average Social Security payment made to a retired worker was 1921.56, and based on the 2.5 percent increase offered, benefits will increase by around $48. If the CPI-E’s three percent value were applied instead, seniors would see $57 tacked onto their checks. This comparison is not meant to show that the CPI-E value is staggeringly higher than currently used. Instead, the comparison calls attention to the fact that there is a gap. That gap indicates that beneficiaries might see their purchasing power decrease, even if it seems small.

Last year, the CPI-E would have provided seniors with a 4 percent COLA, 0.8 percent higher than the one extended to beneficiaries. In just two years, the gap will widen to 1.3 percent, and if this pattern continues year after year, benefits will lose value in real terms.

What would Kamala Harris do to address the problem?

The vice president has not made any commitments to Social Security recipients that there will be a change to the way the COLA is calculated. Some outlets, like the Motley Fool, have pointed to then-Senator Harris’ support for the Social Security Expansion Act while she was in Congress. Harris co-sponsored the legislation introduced by Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT), which would have required the SSA to use the CPI-E in its COLA calculation, increased the maximum income subject to Social Security taxes to $250,000, and established “a new minimum benefit for certain low earners,” among other measures.

As the Senator from California, the Democratic nominee may have felt more comfortable endorsing these progressive measures. However, as she shifts to the right to garner the support of moderates and independents, these policies have taken a back seat. Polling from Data for Progress shows widespread support among Republican and Democratic voters to increase Social Security benefits “by taxing wealthy Americans.”

Donald Trump and the Republican party more broadly have not supported changes to the way the COLA is calculated. The GOP candidate did say over the summer that he would eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits. The issue pointed out by experts is that this would open up a gap in the funding of the program, and that Donald Trump does not propose a mechanism to close it. While a short-term win for seniors, could open the program up to further insolvency issues in the future.