How can a lawsuit against Trump before the election affect his chances?
The former president is having to pay hundreds of millions of dollars in restitution in multiple lawsuits alongside criminal cases.
The slow march of court cases against Donald Trump threatened to turn into a stampede last week with the announcement that he is facing a combined $450 million payment for two lawsuits.
The fact that these cases were civil lawsuits with no prospect of criminal liability would not have a legal affect on the election. There is no particlar law or constitutional provision that prohibits a convicted or arrested person from being a presidential candidate. Five-time candidate Eugene Debs ran as the Socialist candidate for president for the fifth and last time from a prison cell, receiving 3.4% of the vote in 1920.
Is the attraction of Donald Trump to millions of Americans, very simply, racism?@maitlis asks @SenSanders.
— The News Agents (@TheNewsAgents) February 21, 2024
Listen on @GlobalPlayer 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/py0lq1WctM
Determining how the lawsuits will affect his chances of winning the election, if he is selected as the Republican candidate, is difficult to measure. Using polling data, we can see how his support has waxed and waned this year.
How the fallout from the lawsuits have affected Trump’s popularity so far
The results of the two lawsuits were both handed down in 2024. Given a normal political situation, if there is such a thing, it may be expected that Trump’s popularity would fall as a result. Also looming large over his election campaign is the criminal case for election interference, which is being procedurally held up by Trump’s lawyers, as well as his name being blocked from appearing on the presidential ballot in certain states, soon to be heard in the Supreme Court.
Related stories
In fact, Trump’s popularity has actually increased since the turn of the year. On 1 January, 2024 his favourability was measured at -10.5%, according to polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight, while the same measure is -8.5% as of 21 February, 2024. Both scores are an improvement on his -16.6% favourability at the turn of the year in 2023.
This week's independent general election polling of registered voters finds a close, competitive race (Biden-Trump):
— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) February 18, 2024
Emerson 44-45
Economist/YouGov 44-44
Morning Consult 42-43
And a reminder that Biden led 47-45 (2 pts) in last @NYTimes poll.
This favourability is still very low, but it is actually higher than his likely opponent in November, Joe Biden. The incumbent president has a paltry -14.9% favourability and continuing to sink lower. All of this polling is reflected in the likely winner of the presidential election this year. Though tight, not a single poll of note has Biden winning the election this year. If pundits thought the legal issues badgering Trump were going to slow him down, in fact the opposite has been true,.