WEATHER
How could El Niño impact winter weather? Will it snow a lot in 2023-2024?
The weather phenomenon means the chances of snow are much less likely with a warm winter ahead.
Weather conditions characterised by a warmer winter have all but been confirmed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). They are predicting that an ‘El Niño’ weather forecast has a 95% chance to last to spring of 2024.
El Niño is a climate phenomenon characterised by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. It has a significant impact on weather patterns in the United States, especially during the winter months.
The southern states, including the southern parts of California, Texas, and the Gulf Coast, often experiences above-average rainfall and cooler temperatures during an El Niño phenomenon. In contrast, the northern states receive lower rainfall and warmer temperatures.
Will it snow a lot in 2023-2024?
An assessment of snowfall from The Weather Channel during El Niño, and its sister pattern El Niña, gives us the information of how much snow is likely to fall.
Their predictions show that El Niño leads to reduced snowfall in the northern parts of the US, particularly the northern Rockies, Pacific Northwest, and parts of the Midwest. This is due to the jet stream, an important factor in US weather, shifting northwards, thus bringing warmer temperatures.
The opposite is the case in the south, which sees more snowfall due to the cooler weather. El Niño tends to be snowiest in the South, including the Front Range of Colorado, and also from the both Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic.
This is all based upon what has happened before, but it doesn’t mean these are uniform predictions. A ‘strong’ El Niño doesn’t necessarily mean a really heavy rainfall in the south and no snow in the north. Other factors affect the weather too. This includes weather conditions in Greenland, low pressure over the northern Pole.
So take these predictions with a pinch of salt.