June CPI report: Release date and expert forecasts as widespread 10% tariffs remain in affect

Since January, inflation has risen by an average of 1 percent, compared to 1.3 percent over the same period in 2024.

Each month, investors anxiously await the Consumer Price Index report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to see whether the impact of tariffs is being felt by shoppers. So far, there has been limited impact on prices from tariffs, with companies paying higher prices for products absorbing some of the increase instead of passing it along to consumers.

When will the June CPI report be released?

The BLS will release the inflation report at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, July 15.

A look at the June 2025 CPI forecasts

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s Nowcast expects the BLS CPI for June to reflect a 0.25 percent rise in prices, or a year-over-year increase of 2.64 percent. In May, prices rose slightly, moving up by an average of 0.1 percent across goods and services.

Among economists, expectations for the June inflation report are more pessimistic that those measured by the Fed. Investopedia reported that surveys conducted by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal found that most were expecting a 0.3 percent increase compared to May, for a year-over-year increase of 2.7 percent. Those polled pointed to tariffs as one of the main drivers of inflation, though similar fears have been expressed in previous months, with little change in consumer prices.

The White House has warned companies against raising prices on consumers, urging them instead to absorb the increase. Since April, this has proven to be an effective threat, and Wall Street has not shown concern over tariffs at that level.

The warnings of tariff-driven inflation persist

Not all have been so sure that tariffs shouldn’t be a major cuase for concern since the White House began unvieling its tarrif polict. Financial leaders, including JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, have reiterated concerns that the market is showing signs of complacency and that investors are not adequately responding to the potential reduction in profits that tariffs could bring in the coming quarters.

On Monday, Bloomberg warned that higher average prices should be expected in the “tariff-exposed categories including furniture, toys and recreational goods, as well as cars.” Already higher prices in these sectors are already showing up—a change, says the outlet, from the advanced numbers available before the CPI reports from April and May.

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