Lower gas prices thanks to Trump’s takeover of Venezuela’s oil production? Not so fast

On Tuesday, Donald Trump announced that Venezuela would soon be delivering up to 50 million barrels of crude oil to the United States, just days after Nicolás Maduro’s capture and the president’s declaration that the U.S. would be “running” the South American country, including rebuilding its oil infrastructure. However, gas prices are unlikely to be radically affected in the immediate future, according to those in the know.

Posting on his official Truth Social account, Trump wrote: “I am pleased to announce that the Interim Authorities of Venezuela will be turning over between 30 and 50 MILLION barrels of high-quality, sanctioned oil to the United States of America. This oil will be sold at market price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States!”

U.S. oil consumption

While that figure may sound, and is, significant, so too is the amount of oil the United States consumes. The U.S. Energy Information Administration puts the most recent numbers, from 2023, at 20.25 million barrels every single day.

After extracting Maduro from Venezuela on Saturday, Trump pledged to “have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country.”

Why gas prices are unlikely to fall dramatically

Gas prices have dropped by 25 cents per gallon over the last 12 months, a trend forecast to continue into 2026. However, most analysts believe the U.S. actions in Venezuela will not lead to a dramatic drop in prices at the pump for American drivers.

“It’s going to take a long time to see any potential impact in oil production globally,” says GasBuddy.com’s Patrick De Haan, who has been analyzing the oil industry for decades.

“We’re talking about a massive lack of investment, part of that because of U.S. sanctions, which have made it virtually impossible for Venezuela to maintain its oil infrastructure. Gas prices are still going to move up and down, but it’s not going to be anything related to the situation in Venezuela.”

The long-term reality for Venezuelan oil

Appearing on CBS Mornings, business analyst Jill Schlesinger explained where the problem lies.

“Venezuela has an oil reserve of 303 billion barrels of oil. But about three-quarters of that is very hard to extract from the ground and actually refine. When we say it is big, it is big over the long term, if there is an investment.

“Over the last 50 years, Venezuela has seen its oil production slide,” she continued. “Twenty-five years ago, they produced three million barrels a day. Now, it’s a million barrels a day. Venezuela’s reserves are expensive to get out of the ground and it’s a long haul to make that into a moneymaking venture for U.S. companies.”

At the weekend, Trump claimed American oil companies would invest huge sums of money to fix Venezuela’s oil infrastructure, but Schlesinger is not convinced many of them will be lining up to do so.

“Absolutely no impact”

“Will these companies want to invest billions of dollars if this is a much longer-term play? It’s not going to be an immediate turnaround,” she said.

As a result, there will be “absolutely no impact at the gas pumps, in the short term, absolutely none,” Schlesinger insisted.

What about further down the road? “Maybe. Maybe there will be more gas on the market. But there are so many factors at play. It’s not as simple as ‘we extract this person, and the prices at the pumps go down.’”

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