Marta González, political scientist: “The physical elimination of Ali Khamenei does not imply the disappearance of the Islamic Republic”

Marta González Isidoro, journalist and political scientist specializing in the Middle East, is one of the most authoritative voices for understanding the likely next steps of the Iranian regime, how global dynamics are shifting, and what may unfold in a context of uncertainty. As new actors enter the conflict, the expert examines post-Khamenei Iran.

“The Iranian regime is in survival mode and going through a critical moment. Its main concern right now is preventing the conditions from consolidating for what it fears most: the overthrow of the regime,” she begins.

After the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, what happens now?

The physical elimination of Ali Khamenei does not imply the disappearance of the Islamic Republic, at least not immediately, because the foundations on which it was built remain intact.

It is a regime constructed on a very solid institutional base, with powerful repression systems designed to protect, preserve, and ensure the continuity of the revolutionary structure that emerged in 1979. Once Khamenei’s death has been formally announced, the system needs to project continuity.

What will the next steps be?

Technically, the Assembly of Experts, an elected body made up of 88 members, will choose the most suitable candidate to succeed the Supreme Leader. In practice, after such a long tenure and given the circumstances of this ending, the selection will trigger a fierce struggle between conservative and more radical factions, as well as between those factions and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which will push for its own candidate.

Alireza Arafi is the candidate backed by the Revolutionary Guard and has now been appointed to the interim leadership council of the Assembly of Experts alongside Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, and the head of the judiciary, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei. All three, along with Ali Larijani, secretary of the National Security Council and, in practice, a central power figure in Iran, are considered likely candidates whose leadership of the council would be strictly temporary.

What will public sentiment be?

Iranian society oscillates between its Iranian and Islamic identities. Most people, as reflected in expressions of celebration among the diaspora and within the country, want the complete removal of the Islamic regime and hope to live in a democratic, secular state, above all in a free Iran.

The challenge is that, despite these aspirations, it is extremely difficult to overthrow from within a regime that has only limited popular support, roughly 15 percent, but still controls the mechanisms of repression, governance, the economy, and other strategic sectors.

Are we witnessing a turning point?

It is still too early to determine whether this marks a turning point or merely a pause until the strategic objectives that Donald Trump has set for the Middle East become clearer. Personally, I believe we are in a historic moment of transformation in regional power balances.

It is a period of significant uncertainty. We will see whether Trump settles for a cosmetic restructuring, a supervised government, and the opening of a diplomatic process that leads to a nuclear agreement satisfactory to the United States, or whether Iranian society ultimately finds a way to free itself from a regime that has constrained it for more than forty years and that remains a driver of regional and international instability.

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