Mexico 2024 elections: how can the election of Claudia Sheinbaum affect relations with the US?

Provisional results in the 2024 Mexican elections have put Claudia Sheinbaum on the brink of becoming the first ever female - and Jewish - president of Mexico, which could have a profound effect on the United States, especially with regard to immigration.

Sheinbaum, a climate scientist and a former mayor of Mexico City, will take over the project of outgoing president and mentor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who had held the post since 2018.

The 61-year-old is set to come out on top in a three-way race to fill the position, beating another female candidate, Xóchitl Gálvez, a businesswoman and former senator, into second place.

Sheinbaum expected to develop close relationship with United States

Although Sheinbaum will in some ways be continuing Obrador’s work with the ruling Morena party, supported by the governing coalition Let’s Keep Making History (Sigamos Haciendo Historia), she is predicted to crack down even harder on illegal migrant crossings.

Political experts believe Sheinbaum will be willing to develop a closer relationship with the United States, which should work in the favour of current president Joe Biden, whose campaign for the 2024 US elections has hampered by record levels of migrants crossing the US’ southern border illegally in recent years, although the numbers have dropped of late, with Obrador’s assistance.

“If you have a president that is open to the United States and cooperating on the shared challenges and doubling down on the opportunities, that is better for the United States. If you have a president who is more suspicious and doesn’t want to work with the United States, then it’s much harder,” Shannon O’Neil, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, told USA Today.

Immigration to play “formidable” role in Sheinbaum’s presidency

Sheinbaum is expected to fall into the former category, with Rafael Fernández de Castro, a professor of U.S.-Mexican Studies at the University of San Diego in California claiming to Newsweek that immigration would play a “formidable role” in her presidency.

Similarly, David Abraham, a law professor at the University of Miami who specializes in immigration, disclosed his belief to the same publication that the incoming president would “more heavily committed to an international human rights framework” as Mexico would also be looking to secure its own borders against illegal immigrants from other countries.

A left-wing idealist who has promised to combat inequality, Sheinbaum has the economy and security as the most pressing issues to deal with in her own country, whereas trade, illegal immigration, border security and drug trafficking are of primary concern to Mexico’s northern neighbour.

The Mexican public have put their faith in her to work on improving the areas they most care about, while there is hope stateside she can have a positive effect on relations between the two nations.