Neither apples nor oranges: This is the fruit found in every American home that could soon be hard to find in supermarkets

The lowly banana became a staple at breakfast tables and in lunchboxes the world over a little over a century ago. However, this affordable and nutritious fruit is facing a couple of problems that could see the global supply crash.

On the one hand, climate change could force producers to find new areas that are suitable to growing banana plants. On the other, those changing climate patterns are also helping to create the conditions that will allow disease to spread more easily. And that in turn is a problem already plaguing the banana plant in several growing regions around the world.

When can consumers expect to see banana shortages?

The good news is that it will still take about two to three decades for supply chains to be seriously disrupted according to estimates by Mohammad Abu-Ghazaleh, chairman and CEO of the agriculture company Fresh Del Monte, that is unless some solution to the diseases is discovered. He told Time that the peril facing the Cavendish banana plant “hasn’t happened overnight… this has been going on for many, many years.”

Of particular concern is the disease Tropical Race 4, which is an offshoot of Panama disease that decimated the Gros Michel banana plant in the 1950s, once the primary type of banana consumed by Americans. The demise of the Gros Michel happened so fast because all the plants of this type around the world were clones of one another. The same goes for all Cavendish plants.

The hope is that researchers can create a hybrid banana plant that has similar qualities to Cavendish and Gros Michel but immunity from the fungus that plagues them. These include being easily transported and lacking seeds, the latter is something that makes it hard to make a hybrid plant.

Although production is threatened, Abu-Ghazaleh thinks that bananas will still be on shelves in supermarkets and the most budget-friendly fruit there. He says that in his opinion, “even over the next decade or so, the banana will still be the cheapest fruit on the shelf.”

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