Scientists discover that Earth has crossed its first ‘point of no return’: according to NASA, the key factor in the future is the Sun
The gradual increase in solar luminosity could trigger a runaway greenhouse effect in a billion years.
Earth formed roughly 4.5 billion years ago, and scientists estimate it could continue to exist for another five billion years. In other words, our planet has already lived through almost half of its total lifespan.
According to NASA and numerous astrophysical studies, one fundamental factor shaping Earth’s long‑term future is the Sun, which grows brighter as it ages. Although this increase is gradual, it adds up to just over 1% every 100 million years.
Researchers estimate that about one billion years from now, the Sun’s brightness will be high enough to trigger a runaway greenhouse effect. That would cause the oceans to begin evaporating, water vapor would trap even more heat, and surface conditions would become extremely hostile.
Keming Zhang, a planetary scientist at UC San Diego, noted in a 2024 study: “Planet Earth will only be habitable for around another billion years, at which point Earth’s oceans would be vaporized by runaway greenhouse effect - long before the risk of getting swallowed by the red giant.”
400,000 simulations
In a study published in Nature Geoscience, researchers from Toho University in Japan used NASA’s planetary models, and a supercomputer running 400,000 simulations, to find that Earth’s atmosphere will stop being breathable well before the planet is physically destroyed.
NASA data indicates that roughly five billion years from now, the Sun will exhaust the hydrogen fuel in its core and expand into what astronomers call a red giant, likely consuming Earth in the process.
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