Scientists reveal where the next major volcanic eruptions could begin
Although deep Earth exploration is not yet possible, new research has provided key data that could help detect these events.
Scientists from France and Australia have uncovered compelling evidence that could help predict the world’s next major volcanic eruptions. Their research, published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment, analyzed more than 300 million years of volcanic activity—revealing a striking pattern.
At the heart of their findings is a powerful underground force: colossal hot “BLOBS” of magma with plumes rising from deep within the Earth’s mantle. These hidden plumes appear to be closely linked to the most violent volcanic events in our planet’s history.
What are mantle plumes—and why do they matter?
Volcanic eruptions, especially the most destructive ones, often begin far below the surface.
According to the researchers, most of Earth’s largest eruptions have been fueled by mantle plumes—massive columns of hot, molten rock and gas that slowly rise through the Earth’s mantle. As they near the crust, they build pressure and heat until, eventually, they burst through in catastrophic fashion.
This newly confirmed connection between deep mantle activity and surface eruptions could be a game-changer for volcanic risk forecasting.
The tectonic clues beneath our feet
Until now, scientists had already suspected that two specific regions—beneath Africa and the Pacific Ocean—were especially prone to plume activity. But this study goes further.
By mapping past eruptions and comparing them to computer models of Earth’s internal structure, the team found that these massive volcanic events tend to cluster directly above known plume channels.
The average distance between modeled plumes and actual eruption sites is significantly smaller than would occur by chance the study reports, suggesting a direct link between these mantle hotspots and the places where Earth’s crust has cracked open in the past.
Why this changes the way we watch volcanoes
What makes this discovery so crucial isn’t just its scientific insight—it’s the practical impact it could have on global safety.
If scientists can pinpoint where these deep magma bubbles are forming and rising, they could more accurately identify which regions of the world face the highest risk of a future super-eruption.
That could give governments and disaster response teams valuable time to prepare, potentially saving lives.
Looking deep, without seeing it
Because we can’t directly observe what’s happening thousands of miles beneath Earth’s surface, the researchers relied on high-resolution simulations and seismic data to reconstruct historical eruptions and their underground origins.
Despite these limitations, the study’s consistency across multiple models strengthens its conclusions: mantle plumes are not random—they follow a predictable pattern tied to Earth’s internal heat and movement.
Could we predict the next big blast?
While there’s no crystal ball for volcanic activity, this study brings us closer than ever to one. By linking mantle plumes to past eruptions, scientists have identified a powerful forecasting tool that may one day help prevent disaster.
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