Social Security COLA 2025: The most up to date forecasts from the experts

Millions of Americans, including retirees, their qualifying spouses, children, and survivors, receive monthly Social Security checks.

The Social Security Administration (SSA) states that most benefits it pays go to retired workers. However, people with certain disabilities and survivors are also eligible through Supplemental Security Income (SSI) and Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI). Checks for these payments are also issued monthly.

For 2024, the average amount for a retired individual is $1,907, while couples filing jointly can receive up to $3,303. The estimate for SSI recipients is $943 per month for individuals and $1,415 for couples.

These amounts increase annually thanks to the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA), aligning the payments with inflation. In 2024, the COLA increase was 3.4%; however, for 2025, the increase is expected to be less.

How much will Social Security payments go up? Expert estimates?

The COLA increase is calculated based on the annual increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). To determine this, the SSA compares the CPI-W for the third quarter of the previous year with the CPI-W for the third quarter of the current year. The difference between the two will be equivalent to the COLA increase.

As inflation has decreased over the past year, the Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior advocacy organization, projects that the 2025 COLA increase will be 2.5% percent, which is significantly less than the previous year’s increase.

While the increase will be smaller, the real bad news is that costs for other services are also increasing beyond what might be captured in the COLA. For instance, the CPI-W does not adequetely account for how much seniors spend on healthcare, relative to younger generations. From May 2023 to May 2024, hospital costs ballooned 7.2 percent, and seniors account for 70 percent of all hospital admissions.

How much would the average payment increase?

A 2.5% COLA increase would increase retired workers’ monthly benefits by about $48 per month, resulting in an average payment of $1,965 per month for a retired individual in 2025. These are just projections, as the official increase will be announced through the SSA’s October 10 announcement.

The announcement on the 2025 COLA will come on Thursday, October 10.