Social Security recipients may be eyeing a modest bump in benefits next year, but much of that gain could vanish.

The 2026 COLA increase sounds great… until you see the Medicare premium payments

The 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is currently projected at 2.8%, according to independent analysts. That would mean an average increase of just over $52 a month for beneficiaries, based on August’s average Social Security payment of $1,864. But experts warn that Medicare costs are poised to eat up most, if not all, of that extra cash.
How will Medicare impact my COLA payments?
The Medicare Trustees have estimated the standard Part B premium will jump from $185 to $206.50 in 2026, a $21.50 increase. “That’s very close to the record for the largest premium hike in Medicare history,” said Mary Johnson, via USA Today, a Social Security and Medicare policy analyst.
Prescription drug costs are also set to rise, with standalone Part D plan premiums allowed to climb as much as $50 per month, up from $35 in 2025, according to nonprofit researcher KFF.
Seniors should know that the COLA on their Social Security benefits is tied to the CPI. If the CPI is artificially reduced, as Trump wants, your benefits will be reduced.
— Bruce Bartlett (@BruceBartlett) August 12, 2025
Seniors in poverty rising
For many seniors already stretched thin, the calculations are discouraging. “The Medicare premium will likely eat up the little extra money they receive,” said Ramsey Alwin, head of the National Council on Aging. Recent Census Bureau data shows poverty among Americans 65 and older rose to 15% in 2024, the only age group to see an increase.
The Social Security Administration will announce the official COLA in October, but for millions of retirees, the raise may feel more symbolic than substantial.
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