The “big one”: Experts have predicted where the next major earthquake will hit and when
Many experts are predicting a major quake in the next century along the San Andreas fault.


Although the 1964 Alaskan earthquake, which had a magnitude of 9.2 was the biggest quake in US history, the death toll was relatively low (around 131 people).
The 1906 San Francisco earthquake was the most devastating in US history and although the official death toll was around 700, it’s now estimated that the actual number was closer to 3,000 which is due in part to the devastating fires that followed the earthquake.
Market Street, San Francisco in 1906
— The Goddess (@TheGoddessF) August 31, 2023
This footage was shot on April 14, 1906 - only four days before the major earthquake hit.pic.twitter.com/egyOfdt5XU
California is no stranger when it comes to quakes and tremors having experienced the Cape Mendocino quake just last year which registered a magnitude of 7.0M.
Experts claim that the next big US quake will also occur along the San Andreas fault with the United States Geological Survey (USGS) forecasting that a significant quake could even likely before 2032 in the San Francisco Bay Area.
Good afternoon Central California! Did you feel the magnitude 4.4 earthquake about 6 miles northwest of Avenal at 4:17 pm? The #ShakeAlert system was activated. See: https://t.co/2eEqrZbjPX @Cal_OES @CAGeoSurvey @USGS_Quakes pic.twitter.com/YKRB5oby9W
— USGS ShakeAlert (@USGS_ShakeAlert) February 14, 2025
They also estimate that a quake to match the magnitude of 1906 occurs at intervals of about 200 years.
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