The country growing uneasy over the non-arrival of US nuclear submarines: “America is less dependable under Trump”
The multibillion-dollar AUKUS deal, through which the United States promised to deliver a batch of nuclear submarines to Australia, is now in jeopardy as tensions rise between the two countries.

The geopolitical landscape in Asia and Oceania has been marked by a series of tense episodes. From China’s ambitions to take over the island of Taiwan to North Korea’s military tests in Japanese waters, the United States is witnessing how one of its historically most controlled regions is shifting in hegemony.
For this reason, the AUKUS security pact—signed between Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom—was not only intended to strengthen Australia’s defense in the Indo-Pacific through the acquisition of nuclear-powered attack submarines but also to maintain U.S. dominance in these waters. However, the possibility that these vessels may never be delivered to the “Land of Oz” has begun to raise concerns in both Washington and Canberra.
Loud promises, in practice: empty words
Announced with great enthusiasm back in 2021, the AUKUS pact outlined that Australia would purchase between three and five Virginia-class submarines from the United States starting in 2032, before beginning to manufacture its own units with British technology by the late 2030s. The initiative, with an estimated cost of up to $368 billion by the mid-2050s, was presented as a guarantee of security in the region. However, new doubts have emerged regarding the United States’ ability to fulfill the delivery.
According to a recent report from the U.S. Congressional Research Service, the American shipbuilding industry is struggling to meet the demand of its own navy, which could prevent the sale of submarines to Australia. Instead, an alternative being considered is that the additional submarines remain in service under the U.S. flag, operating from Australian territory but without being under Canberra’s sovereign control.
A revelation that has not gone over well in Australia
This scenario has sparked criticism within the Australian giant, where some experts believe the country is sacrificing its sovereignty and security by depending on the will of the United States. Malcolm Turnbull, former Australian Prime Minister (2015–2018), has warned that AUKUS could become a “catastrophe” if Australia ends up without its own submarines and increasingly dependent on Washington.
“We’re giving the Americans US$3bn to support their submarine industrial base, but they have no obligation to sell us a submarine,” Turnbull criticized in an interview with The Guardian.
He also emphasized that the agreement signed with the United States and the United Kingdom has turned Australia into “a central base of operations from which to project power,” rather than a sovereign ally with its own capabilities.
In this context, former Australian intelligence analyst Clinton Fernandes, also speaking to The Guardian, argues that the true objective of AUKUS is not to provide Australia with a fleet of submarines but to solidify its role as a “sentinel state” for U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific. Fernandes stated that the AUKUS agreement only makes sense if we understand its “real goal”, which is to demonstrate Australia’s relevance to American global supremacy,”.
Even so, the Australian government insists that AUKUS is still on track and that the submarines represent “a multibillion-dollar, multi-decade investment” in national security. However, the lack of concrete guarantees and the possibility that the United States may retain the vessels have left one fundamental question up in the air: Will Australia own its own submarine fleet, or will it simply become another strategic base for Washington’s interests?
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