The country that is fretting over the non-arrival of U.S. nuclear submarines: “No longer reliable”

The geopolitical scenario in Asia and Oceania has seen a series of tense episodes. From China’s ambitions to take the island of Taiwan to North Korea’s military tests in Japanese waters, the United States is witnessing one of its historically most controlled regions change its hegemonic dominance.

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For this reason, the Aukus security agreement, signed between Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom, which promised to strengthen Australia’s defense in the Indo-Pacific by acquiring nuclear-powered attack submarines, also aimed to maintain U.S. power in these waters. However, the possibility that these vessels may never be delivered to “the land down under” has begun to generate concern in both Washington and Canberra.

Promises in words, but in practice: mere paper

Announced with exuberance back in 2021, the Aukus pact envisioned Australia purchasing between three and five Virginia-class submarines from the United States starting in 2032, before beginning to build its own units with British technology by the late 2030s. The initiative, with an estimated cost of up to $368 billion by mid-2050, was presented as a guarantee for regional security. However, new doubts have emerged about the United States’ ability to fulfill the delivery.

According to a recent report by the U.S. Congressional Research Service, the U.S. shipbuilding industry is facing difficulties in meeting the demands of its own navy, which could prevent the sale of submarines to Australia. Instead, there is talk of the possibility that additional submarines may remain under U.S. flags, operating from Australian territory but without sovereign control from Canberra.

A revelation that hasn’t been well-received in Australia

This scenario has sparked criticism within the giant island nation, where some experts believe the country is sacrificing its sovereignty and security by depending on the will of the United States. Malcolm Turnbull, former Australian prime minister from 2015 to 2018, has warned that Aukus could become a “disaster” if Australia ends up without its own submarines and with growing dependence on Washington.

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“We give the Americans $3 billion to support their submarine industrial base, but they have no obligation to sell us a submarine,” Turnbull rebuked in an interview with The Guardian. He also emphasized that the agreement signed with the U.S. and the U.K. has turned Australia into “a central base of operations from which to project power,” rather than a sovereign ally with its own capabilities.

In this context, former Australian intelligence analyst Clinton Fernandes, also speaking to The Guardian, argues that the real goal of Aukus is not to provide Australia with a fleet of submarines, but to solidify its role as a “sentinel state” for U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific. “The Aukus agreement only makes sense if we understand that its true purpose is to demonstrate Australia’s relevance to U.S. global supremacy,” Fernandes stated.

Even so, the Australian government insists that Aukus is still underway and that the submarines represent “a multimillion-dollar investment spanning several decades” in national security. However, the lack of concrete guarantees and the possibility that the United States will retain the vessels have left one crucial question unanswered: Will Australia own its own submarine fleet, or will it simply be another strategic base for Washington’s interests?