The country that war could make into a superpower

At a geopolitical level, the world is plagued by different conflicts that directly and indirectly involve the vast majority of countries. Be it through military and humanitarian assistance or impacts on the global supply of food and energy resources. International conflicts have consequences that reverberate around the world. In Europe, the effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were felt strongly as energy prices shot through the roof and countries looked for new markets to purchase petroleum and natural gas. Meanwhile, the conflict between Israel and Gaza in the Middle East, which has drawn in other countries like Yemen and Iran, shows no signs of ending. These conflicts have far-reaching consequences on economic, political, and military fronts for the involved powers, civilians, and inhabitants of affected territories.

According to Goldman Sachs, one of the world’s largest investment banking and securities groups, Brazil is one of the leading powers in the world. Since 2000, Brazil’s GDP has grown from $655.4 billion to $2.2 trillion. Additionally, the country has increased its power within the BRICs block, which now includes South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates (in addition to the founding members of China, Brazil, India, and Russia). Estimates indicate that Brazil could become one of the ten great world economic powers in 2050, even overtaking Russia or France. By 2075, its economy is expected to grow larger than that of the United Kingdom and Germany.

The century for emerging economies

In addition, the country would consolidate itself as the “superpower” of South America, according to the forecasts calculated by Goldman Sachs in its Global Economy report, ‘The Road to 2075: Size and Opportunities of the Capital Market,’ published at the beginning of 2023. This study prepared a ranking that includes 104 countries and predicts that by 2050, Brazil will have the eighth-largest economy in the world. The position is currently held by Canada, which by the middle of this century would see its economy fall to the fourteenth slot on the list. By 2050, Goldman Sachs expects power to be shared between China, the United States, and India. The latter is likely to overtake the United States in the second half of the century, while China will remain undeterred in first place.

Goldman Sachs predicts that Brazil will not rise in the global arena for another few decades. However, the World Bank has released a projection stating that Brazil could overtake Italy this year and become the eighth largest economy in the world among other countries.

However, this is not the only thing that draws attention to the results included in the report since it also states that France, Japan, and Russia could disappear from the top 10, being replaced by Nigeria, Pakistan, and Egypt, which would move to fifth, sixth and seventh place respectively. In addition, Indonesia would be close to China, India, and the US. At the same time, Germany and the United Kingdom will likely lose economic power and are expected to see their economies shrink to sizes that would place them behind Brazil by 2075. However, the forecast shows that these two countries would be the only ones in Europe to remain in the top ten.

What criteria are being taken into account?

The researchers focused their analysis on political leadership, military strength, economic growth, alliances with other nations, and the global influence of the territory, including the ability to exercise authority and dominion over other powers. rest of the powers.

The Goldman Sachs team has identified Brazil as an emerging “superpower” based on specific requirements and criteria. Brazil stands at the eleventh position in the list of countries with the largest economies. However, as mentioned earlier, it is on track to surpass other countries with higher ranks.

How the distance between the West and Russia benefits countries like Brazil

Abrdn’s emerging markets analyst, Michael Langham, explained on BBC Mundo that the expansion of the BRICS “was to be expected.” These additional voices could “reinforce the importance of the group as a forum for geopolitical debate, especially in the Middle East, where most of the new members come from and where China has tried to increase its influence,” added Langham.

In fact, in 2021, the BRICS managed to exceed the GDP of their G7 counterparts, a group of countries made up of the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, and the United States that for years have represented the seven largest advanced economies in the world.

With the arrival of the international conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, the distance between the BRICS and the G7 has widened. Russia, previously a member of the G7, was kicked out, pushing the country closer to other BRICS members.

For China, Brazil, and Russia to continue growing their economies, relying on one another will be critical. Brazil, which is not subject to the same demagoguery as the other two aforementioned countries, could also benefit from closer relationships with other G7 members, a luxury that Russia and China are not afforded under the current global order. This is particularly true if wars continue to break out that force countries to take sides. If Brazil’s economy is robust enough, it will be able to throw its weight around, supporting other powers or holding a neutral space within the global debate to protect its interests.