The country with the strictest tobacco laws investigates its wastewater and cancels the plan that Europe intends to copy

Australia, one of the toughest countries in the world when it comes to tobacco and vaping control, has just shown that even the most restrictive policies require real data to work. Its latest study, published in JAMA Network Open, reveals findings that Europe appears unwilling to confront as it advances a reform that will raise taxes, restrict products, and potentially replicate mistakes already observed elsewhere.

The conclusions were made possible by a tool that, surprisingly, is transforming public health: wastewater analysis, similar to the approach used in various places during the worst phase of covid-19 to implement targeted lockdowns by basic health zones.

The Australian study is one of the most comprehensive in the world. It focused on 55 treatment plants serving 14 million people, more than half the country’s population. The research spans seven years of data on nicotine, legal tobacco, illicit tobacco, and vaping. Scientists tracked biomarkers such as cotinine, hydroxycotinine, and anabasine, which allow researchers to accurately estimate both the origin and quantity of nicotine consumed.

This approach provides an objective snapshot of reality. That is where it begins to challenge parts of the model Europe is considering replicating through the new TPD and TED, initiatives that focus more on prohibition than on understanding consumer behavior.

The Tobacco Products Directive refers to the upcoming revision of European Union regulations, often called TPD3, which seeks to tighten controls on nicotine products, including tobacco, e-cigarettes, and heated tobacco. The new Tobacco Excise Directive refers to the revision proposed by the European Commission in July 2025 to update the EU’s tobacco taxation framework.

Australia confirms that strict measures can reduce consumption, but not without side effects. According to the data, total nicotine use is declining, particularly in regional areas, with annual decreases of up to 2.2 percent in remote regions. However, consumption has plateaued in major cities.

Traditional tobacco use is falling, but not as quickly as expected. Declines have reached up to 9.8 percent annually in some inner regional areas, with more moderate reductions elsewhere.

What is happening with the illicit market

Australia’s data show that the illicit market is booming. Illegal tobacco volumes rose from 1,350 tons in 2017 to 3,400 tons in 2023, a 150 percent increase in a country with extreme controls, near-total prohibitions, and sales limited to pharmacies.

This pattern has already been observed in Europe. Countries such as France, Netherlands, and Belgium have experienced surges in smuggling following tax hikes and stricter regulations. Demand does not disappear; it simply shifts outside the legal market and beyond health oversight.

How vaping is growing

Despite, or perhaps because of, the near-total ban on recreational vaping, the study shows that vaping products and nicotine replacement therapies now account for 26.3 percent of nicotine consumption, up from just 5.4 percent in 2017. The increase is particularly significant among young adults.

Disposable devices continue to enter the country despite being banned. When legal access is blocked, users look for alternatives outside the regulated system, where there are no safety controls or product traceability, and they invariably find them.

What Europe can learn

The European Union is working on revisions to the TPD and TED that would introduce historic tax increases, tighter restrictions on flavors, formats, and packaging, new fiscal burdens on vaping and oral nicotine, and potentially stricter rules on ingredients and additives. However, Europe does not have a system comparable to Australia’s to measure the real-world impact of these policies.

At present, it is not analyzing wastewater. It is not monitoring biomarkers on a broad scale, and it lacks independent measurements of how much illicit tobacco is replacing legal sales. Yet it plans to replicate a model that, according to Australian data, is generating more black-market activity, more unregulated vaping, and greater displacement of consumption without achieving the expected results.

In this context, neighboring models such as that of New Zealand, based on more balanced regulation, could offer a guiding light. The goal would be to reduce consumption without criminalizing users, integrate less harmful alternatives under health oversight, prevent the illegal market from displacing the legal one, and maintain product traceability and safety.

The evidence suggests that not all restrictions are equal. Smart regulation is more effective than prohibition without measurement, and it also generates greater public revenue.

The Australian study demonstrates that even the strictest policies can produce positive effects, but they may also carry significant public health consequences when not grounded in objective data. Wastewater analysis has allowed Australia to identify trends, adjust decisions, and understand developments that are not immediately visible.

Europe aims to lead in tobacco and nicotine regulation. It is not there yet, but there is still time.

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