The first economic consequence of the US attack on Iran: “Catastrophic scenario”
The Strait of Hormuz is the only way to move oil from the Persian Gulf, with a rise in price the most immediate possible consequences.
The United States’ attack on Iran has not only political and military repercussions but also significant economic implications—especially in relation to oil, which may be one of the most affected assets.
Just days ago, amid the ongoing exchange of bombings between Iran and Israel, the price of a barrel of oil approached $78, marking a 13% increase after having barely crossed the $70 threshold in the days leading up to the conflict.
The Strait of Hormuz, the only maritime passage for transporting oil from the Persian Gulf to international waters, plays a crucial role in this scenario.
In fact, Bloomberg reported a rise in Iranian oil exports despite the Israeli attacks—specifically, 2.33 million barrels per day since the conflict began, according to TankerTrackers.
These waters are not only under Iran’s control but are also shared with other OPEC nations such as the United Arab Emirates and Oman. A potential blockade or closure of the Strait by Iran would be a “catastrophic” scenario, experts warn.
Such a move would immediately disrupt the oil market, driving prices higher and impacting the broader energy sector. The consequences would be felt globally—by industries, consumers, oil-importing nations, and even some oil-exporting countries.
BREAKING: Iranian parliament has just voted to close the Strait of Hormuz.
— Brian Krassenstein (@krassenstein) June 22, 2025
- 20% of global oil passes through the Strait
HERE’s what to expect if successful:
- Oil Prices could spike by 30–50%+ almost immediately
- Global Inflation likely Rises
- U.S. Gas Prices likely… pic.twitter.com/WC4dmeagRE
According to The Washington Post, citing data from U.S. sanctions that disrupted traffic in 2019, the global oil supply could drop by as much as 20% in such a scenario. Despite the Strait being just 3 kilometers wide at its narrowest points and having only two navigable routes, about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through these critical waters.
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