The first estimates of the 2026 Social Security COLA are here and retirees may not like them

This year, Social Security beneficiaries and other recipients of programs managed by the Social Security Administration (SSA) saw their benefits increase by 2.5 percent. The SSA calculates the annual Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) based on price inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).

The most recent CPI-W report, published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics earlier this month, showed that prices rose by an average of 0.17 percent in February.

Forecasts show a smaller COLA, but tariffs could push the estimate up

The Senior Citizens League, a senior rights organization, updated its COLA forecast in light of these latest figures, revising its projection to 2.2 percent—down slightly from the February estimate of 2.3 percent.

Since October, when the SSA announced the 2025 COLA, the CPI-W has tracked an average price increase of 1.3 percent. To reach the forecasted 2.2 percent COLA for 2026, inflation would need to rise by approximately 0.9 percent between March and September. The Federal Reserve has raised its inflation projection for 2025, citing the Trump administration’s plan to impose sweeping tariffs on U.S. imports, which could lead to higher prices for affected goods.

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