The last 16 minutes of the ‘Bayesian’: a timeline of the sinking of the yacht in Sicily

On Friday, search teams located the body of the daughter of British tycoon Mike Lynch. Hannah Lynch was the last person missing from the wreck of the Bayesian, the yacht that sank last Monday off the coast of Palermo, Sicily.

The luxury vessel was carrying 22 people on that fateful night of August 19. Of those on board, 12 were passengers, while 10 were crew members. Although most survived, six people were reported missing in the aftermath: the previously mentioned British businessman Mike Lynch; his daughter, Hannah Lynch; Jonathan Bloomer, the director of Morgan Stanley International; his wife, Judy Bloomer; American lawyer Chris Morvillo; and his wife, Neda Morvillo. Over the past few days, their bodies have been found inside the Bayesian, at rest on the bottom of the sea at a depth of 160 feet.

Luxury yacht Bayesian sinks in storm

The luxurious 184-foot yacht, flying the British flag, was built at the Perini Navi Viareggio shipyard in February 2008. The yacht boasted the world’s tallest aluminium mast, measuring 246 feet.

In addition to the storm and the powerful gusts of wind that contributed to the vessel’s destabilization and sinking, experts have also pointed to human error as a possible cause of the Bayesian’s demise. There is talk of a chain of mistakes, including open hatches and windows, improper alignment of the vessel, and poor positioning of the keel, the counterweight to the soaring mast.

Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera (link in Italian) has obtained details of the final 16 minutes of the Bayesian, thanks to the AIS (Automatic Identification System) tracking system, which links a ship’s onboard instruments to coastal stations and accurately tracks the vessel.

Final moments of the Bayesian

In this case the final moments ran from 3:50 a.m. to 4:06 a.m., the time of its tragic end.

3:50 a.m.

A waterspout strikes the Bayesian. Despite being anchored, the tracking system shows a path that visually resembles a scribble: the yacht moves forward and backward, then side to side, and then once more forward and backward.

3:59 a.m.

The anchor gives way, leaving the yacht fully exposed to the storm.

4:00 a.m.

By this time, the yacht is taking on so much water that it becomes unmanageable. The power goes out, indicating that water has reached either the generator area or the engine room.

4:03 a.m.

At 4:03 a.m., there is another slight change in the yacht’s trajectory. By 4:05 a.m., it vanishes from the tracking system after drifting about 400 yards. Surveillance footage recorded from a villa near the Porticello harbor corroborates this moment.

4:06 a.m.

At 4:06 a.m., the EPIRB (emergency position-indicating radio beacon), a type of GPS that acts as an emergency beacon, automatically sends a distress signal to the Cospas-Sarsat satellite station in Bari, managed by the Coast Guard. The yacht, as reported by the 15 survivors, went down bow-first in a vertical position before coming to rest on the seafloor, starboard side down.

During these 16 terrifying minutes, 15 people managed to escape. The cook, Recaldo Thomas, died trying to get out. The other six, who were reported missing and have now been found dead, fought for their lives until the very end.