Allan Lichtman, an American University historian who has been dubbed the “Nostradamus of US presidential elections”, is backing Democratic candidate Kamala Harris to beat Republican challenger Donald Trump in the race for the White House next month.

Lichtman is credited with correctly predicting the winner of all but one of the US presidential elections held over the last 40 years - with George W Bush’s 2000 win over Al Gore the one blemish on his track record.

How does Lichtman make US election prediction?

Ignoring polling trends, Lichtman makes his prediction based on what he calls election “keys”: 13 true or false statements about the track record of the White House’s incumbent party. If the statement is true, the incumbent party’s candidate gets a point; if it is false, the challenging party’s candidate is awarded a point. If the challenger gets six or more points, Lichtman predicts that power will change hands; otherwise, he backs the incumbent party.

“The keys to the White House are an alternative to the pundits, which have no scientific merit, and the polls, which are snapshots, not predictors,” Lichtman told a video on his YouTube channel. “They’re the only system that on a broad basis gauges how American presidential elections really work as votes up or down on the strength of performance of the party holding the White House.”

What are Lichtman’s election keys?

Per USA Today, Lichtman’s 13 true or false statements are:

1. The White House party gained House seats during the midterms

2. The sitting president is running for re-election

3. The White House party avoided a primary contest

4. There is no third-party challenger

5. The short-term economy is strong

6. The long-term economic growth has been as good as the last two terms

7. The White House party has made major changes to national policy

8. There is no sustained social unrest during the term

9. The White House is untainted by scandal

10. The incumbent is charismatic

11. The challenger is uncharismatic

12. The White House party has a major failure in foreign policy

13. The White House party has foreign policy success

What is Harris' score in Lichtman’s key system?

In a video recorded for the New York Times in September, Lichtman revealed that - in his judgement - Harris earns an 8-3 positive score (he didn’t offer a true or false answer for statements 12 or 13, but noted that these two points still wouldn’t be enough to tip the scales in Trump’s favor). Harris won out on points 3-9 and 11, while Trump won out on points 1, 2 and 10.

Explaining his decision to mark Trump down for charisma, Lichtman told USA Today: “You have to understand, I have a very specific definition of the key, and I’ve turned this key ever since 1860. My definition is you have to be an across-the-board, broadly appealing candidate. You cannot appeal to just a narrow base.”

What do the polls say ahead of 2024 US presidential election?

As of Tuesday morning ET, Harris holds a 1.8-point lead across state and national polls, according to the data-analysis specialists FiveThirtyEight.

However, Trump appears to be up in the betting: per Oddschecker, the former president is the -159 favorite to retake the White House, with Harris priced at +162 to become the first ever female commander-in-chief of the US.

When is the 2024 US presidential election?

Early voting is already underway in some states in the US, but most of the American electorate will go to the ballot box on Tuesday November 5, 2024.