This ‘city killer’ asteroid could hit the moon: “We realize that an impact on the moon could be consequential”

An asteroid roughly the size of a high-rise building is on a new path toward the Moon, a relief after some collision courses had put it on track to land on the Earth months ago. The object, known as 2024 YR4, was already on NASA’s radar after making headlines last year for a near pass by Earth. Back then, some feared it could collide with our planet, but those concerns were ruled out. According to data from top space agencies, asteroid 2024 YR4 measures around 197 feet (60 meters) in length.

Thanks to new readings from the James Webb Space Telescope, scientists have confirmed a subtle but important shift in the asteroid’s orbit. That change has raised the odds of a lunar impact from 3.8% to 4.3%, according to data cited by National Geographic. That may not sound like much — but in space terms, it’s enough to matter. CNN reported that if YR4 does make a lunar impact, it would be visible from Earth, and that “it could also send fine-grained lunar material hurtling toward our planet.”

When is the giant asteroid scheduled to enter our corner of the universe?

On the list of things to worry about, 2024 YR4 might not need to rank too high, particularly considering that any possible lunar impact will not be seen until at least 2032, based on its current trajectory. NASA stated in early July that the agency will be able to provide more precise figures on the asteroid’s path in 2028 "when the asteroid’s orbit around the Sun brings it back into the vicinity of Earth."

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