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California Fires

This is when Los Angeles, California can expect rain according to the Farmers Almanac

Rain would bring some relief to Los Angeles as the area battles major fires and assesses the devastation. A look at different forecast models.

A view shows the remains of homes destroyed by the Palisades Fire in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood in Los Angeles, California, U.S. January 11, 2025. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
Carlos Barria
Maite Knorr-Evans
Maite joined the AS USA in 2021, bringing her experience as a research analyst investigating illegal logging to the team. Maite’s interest in politics propelled her to pursue a degree in international relations and a master's in political philosophy. At AS USA, Maite combines her knowledge of political economy and personal finance to empower readers by providing answers to their most pressing questions.
Update:

Using historical averages, government and independent organizations release weather forecasts for cities and regions worldwide.

As Los Angeles County grapples with two of the most devastating wildfires since the state began keeping records, rain would help reduce the risk of further fires gaining strength in the coming weeks. The Santa Ana winds, a weather phenomenon that affects Southern California, can bring hurricane-force gusts, as they did on Monday, January 6, when the Eaton and Palisades Fires broke out. This week, meteorologists are warning of a moderate Santa Ana event, which, without rain, will increase the risk of fires and hinder firefighters’ ability to quickly contain them.

Aerial support has proven highly effective in protecting structures from the fires' paths over the last few days. However, during the first night of the blaze, high winds grounded these crews, allowing the fires to destroy homes, businesses, schools, and other structures. To date, more than 10,000 structures have burned, and thousands of families have lost everything.

Though many Angelenos were not directly affected by evacuation orders or warnings, they have endured smoke and the poor air quality the fires have caused. Rain could help clear some of the debris and particles from the air, though strong winds might also contribute to dispersion.

Read more from AS USA:

The Forecast from the Farmers’ Almanac

The Farmers’ Almanac, known for tracking weather trends over the years, has released a forecast for the Southwest indicating rain as a possibility between January 20 and 23. February, historically a rainy month for the region, also shows potential for showers. Last February, downtown Los Angeles received more than 12 inches of rain. While rain can reduce fire risks, heavy rainfall can bring the threat of mudslides, particularly in fire-affected areas where scorched soil struggles to absorb moisture.

Insights from the Los Angeles Almanac

The Los Angeles Almanac provides a more detailed look at historical weather trends specific to the city. February is typically the rainiest month in Los Angeles, averaging 3.64 inches of rain. January, the second wettest month, has been notably dry this year.

The National Weather Service Outlook

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The National Weather Service, relying on meteorological models rather than historical trends, predicts no chance of rain for the Los Angeles area in the upcoming week. The one-month forecast indicates a slightly lower chance of rain compared to the seasonal average, while the three-month forecast could not determine whether the area is likely to experience less or more precipitation.

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