Tornadoes: Which states and cities at most risk of storms today, 23 May?

A significant weather event is unfolding across the United States, with storm, flooding, and tornado alerts issued for various regions. The National Weather Service has highlighted several areas at risk of severe weather conditions today.

In short, severe storms with large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are likely today in the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex. Isolated severe storms may also occur in the mid Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and Lower Great Lakes.

The storm warnings for Thursday

According to the Storm Prediction Center’s Day 1 Convective Outlook, the central and southern Great Plains, including parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska, are at risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The primary threats are tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds up to 85 mph. There is a 2-5% risk of tornadoes forming all the way from North Dakota down to Texas and Louisiana in a straight line.

A more detailed summary

The outlook specifically mentions the potential for severe storms downstream of a shortwave trough ejecting from the Northwest into the northern Great Plains. A lee cyclone is expected to track east-northeast towards the Upper Red River Valley, with a dryline/lee trough emerging eastward and being overtaken by an accelerating cold front.

In the central to eastern Nebraska vicinity, the outlook predicts upscale growth of storms during the evening hours, favored by a strengthening low-level jet ahead of the increasingly convergent cold front. This could lead to significant severe winds and brief tornadoes moving towards the Mid-Missouri Valley.

The southern Great Plains, particularly Oklahoma and central Texas. Isolated to scattered morning wind may persist or redevelop to the north of remnant outflow from central Texas through the Mid-South.

Residents in these areas should stay alert, monitor local weather updates, and follow any advisories or warnings issued by authorities.