Ukraine predicts how long the Russian invasion will last
Two senior Ukrainian military officials have issued a statement warning that Russia’s “full-scale war” will likely continue into the new year.
After more than six months of fighting the Ukrainian military has begun to turn the table on the Russian invaders, launching a broad counteroffensive with the aim of retaking the south.
The Ukrainian military’s Commander-in-Chief, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, and First Deputy Chairman of the Rada Security Committee, Lieutenant General Mykhailo Zabrodskyi, have authored a recent article in which they predict that 2023 could bring a tipping point in the war.
“The full-scale war, unleashed by the Russian Federation against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has long moved beyond the concept of a local conflict of medium intensity,” the report reads.
They anticipate that, if Ukraine can successfully reclaim the southern Kherson region, their military can make decisive progress in 2023. Ukraine is planning a coordinated action in the south to prepare the ground for a major counteroffensive next year.
“The only way to radically change the strategic situation, undoubtedly, is to apply several consecutive and, ideally, simultaneous counterattacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the 2023 campaign,” they wrote.
In the article published in Ukrinform on Wednesday 7 September, Zaluzhnyi and Zabrodskyi point out that predicting the course of the war is near-impossible. However they accept that the conflict will likely last into 2023. From that point, they say, the Ukrainians will adapt to changing circumstances and wait until they have the necessary resources and proper opportunity to launch a more large-scale attack.
World Bank official concludes that fighting will continue
It is not only officials in the Ukrainian military who believe that the war will drag on into 2023. Arup Banerjee, the World Bank’s Regional Director for Eastern Europe, told the Interfax-Ukraine News Agency that “the likelihood that the war could continue beyond 2022 is currently growing.”
In an interview with the agency, Banerjee warned of the long-term economic issues that a prolonged conflict will have on the region.
“However, due to the long war, with active fighting still ongoing in some regions of Ukraine, we cannot be sure of our preliminary projections for a recovery in the medium term,” he said.
The future consequences of the war are expected to wreak havoc with Ukraine’s financial stability, due to the huge damage that is being done to the nation’s industry, infrastructure and vital natural resources.
Banerjee said: “As GDP is being affected by active fighting continuing for quite a large area of the country, and the rest of Ukraine is suffering from shelling, which causes corresponding losses to infrastructure, property and, therefore, livelihoods and jobs.”