What if the U.S. goes to war? These countries would back it... and these others might attack it

After World War II, several countries, including the United States, recognized that maintaining national security required managing foreign threats. This led to the decision—primarily among the victors of the war—to establish treaties, international organizations, and formal alliances with other nations. To this day, the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council remain the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Russia, and China.

Years after the war’s end, some of these countries joined others to form the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a defensive military alliance created to counter Soviet influence. The prospect of Ukraine joining NATO has long been a red line for Russia. As NATO members have supported Ukraine’s war effort, they have been careful to avoid triggering a full-scale war between NATO and Russia. While NATO members have publicly supported Ukraine’s future membership, they have not provided a clear pathway, largely because they are incentivized to keep the conflict geographically contained.

Israel-Iran War shakes up geopolitical alliances

Now, as tensions escalate in the Middle East between Israel and Iran, similar alliance dynamics are emerging. Some NATO members—including France, Germany, and the United Kingdom—have expressed varying degrees of support for Israel’s actions, though all have called for de-escalation.

Japan and Turkey strike their own tone

Turkey, a NATO member, maintains relatively good relations with both Russia and the United States and is not eager to be drawn into a direct conflict between the two powers. The country, led by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has attempted to serve as an intermediary between Russia and Ukraine, offering neutrality and a venue for dialogue. However, Turkey, has taken a much more aggressive stance against Israel following its attack last Friday.

Erdoğan, quoted by his office, called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “the greatest threat to the region’s security.” In a post on X from Wednesday, June 19, the Turkish leader criticized governments that had “mercilessly criticized [Turkey] for drawing attention to Israel’s increasing aggression,” saying they “should not be giving us advice or questioning our sensitivities today.” Though no names were mentioned, Erdoğan added that “if they have even a shred of self-respect left, they should acknowledge their mistakes and apologize to us.”

Japan, which is not a member of NATO but is part of the G7, condemned Israel’s attack." “The use of military means amid the ongoing diplomatic efforts, including U.S.-Iran talks aimed at the peaceful resolution of the Iran’s nuclear issue, is completely unacceptable and deeply regrettable. The Government of Japan strongly condemns these actions,” reads the statement released by Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs shortly after Israel’s strike. The difference in tone highlights a fissure in the messaging among G7 allies—countries that had previously shown strong unity following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Similarly, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a member of the BRICS bloc, has criticized Israel’s preemptive strike on Iran, aligning Brazil more closely with countries distancing themselves from Washington. “Israel’s recent attacks on Iran threaten to turn the Middle East into a single battlefield, with incalculable global consequences,” Lula wrote on X.

After President Trump’s recent visit to the Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, he might be surprised to see strong public support from the highest levels of the government towards Iran. Following Israel’s attack, the Saudi Foriegn Ministry released a statement which condmeed and denounced what it described as “blatant Israeli aggressions against the brotherly Islamic Republic of Iran, which undermine its sovereignty and security and constitute a clear violation of international laws and norms.” Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia do not have diplomatic relations, though the U.S. has been working for years to get the two governments to normalize relations. The statements coming from Saudi Arabia do not indicate that the process will be underway soon, with a larger regional conflict delaying any such negotiation even further.

Russia’s offer to mediate rejected by the White House

Russia has repeatedly offered to mediate between Israel and Iran, citing its stable diplomatic relations with both governments. These offers have been rejected by the White House, with President Trump instead urging President Putin to focus on resolving the war in Ukraine. The Russian government—like China—has shown greater sympathy toward Iran, a stance shaped in part by their shared international isolation.

These examples of countries diverging from the growing consensus in the White House that the U.S. should become involved in the conflict serve as warnings: the military actions taken by the U.S. and Israel may not rally the kind of coalition they hope for. Instead, they risk further fracturing the international order and increasing the likelihood of a broader war, as more countries begin to take sides.

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