What is the future for Donald Trump after the 2022 midterm elections?
After a disappointing night for Republicans, the finger-pointing has begun. Has Ron DeSantis’ success killed Trump’s reelection bid?
With record inflation and large economic woes, many pundits were expecting the Republicans to seize both the House and the Senate from the Democrats. Exit polls confirmed this with the state of the economy of higher priority compared to any other single issue in voters’ minds.
But now the majority of the results have been released and the picture is very different. While the Republicans are set to win the House their margin of victory is much smaller than anticipated while the Senate control will not be decided until December. Even then, it is likely to remain 50 seats apiece.
Catch up on election night:
Many have seen these midterms as a referendum on the progress made by President Joe Biden. But for many Republican candidates this was also a referendum for their self-appointed party head Donald Trump. He made a point of endorsing some 350 candidates across the country, giving each his stamp of approval so that they may win their vote like a modern feudal pyramid.
This was epitomised by the crucial Senate race in Pennsylvania. Republican candidate Mehmet Oz, basically handpicked by Trump, was visited by the former president in the last week of campaigning. Oz had been gaining ground every week since the beginning of Septmeber, closing polling differences to his rival of 11 points down to less than 0.5. However, Oz ended up slipping away from his opponent John Fetterman on election night, finishing 3.5% down.
Other Trump candidates have struggled. Arizona, another battleground, Trump nominee Blake Masters is being well beaten by Mark Kelly. The Georgia Senate race will be going to a runoff after Trump friend Herschel Walker, dogged by Scandal, failed to be at his opponent. The only Trump success was JD Vance in Ohio, though this is a Republican voting state anyway making victory a formality. The vote was also much closer than it had been compared to the last three Senate votes in the state.
The University of Texas’ Jon Taylor told the BBC that swing voters were turned off by Donald Trump’s nominations.
“There’s an argument to be made here that this was as much a referendum on Donald Trump as it was anything else,” he said. “And if you look at the candidates that he supported, particularly the election deniers running for governor, Senate or secretary of state positions, many of them lost. Even if he got a couple of wins, it’s not like he expanded any sort of Republican base or majority.”
Hans Hassell, an associate professor of political science at Florida State University, who has investigated the impact of Trump’s endorsements on elections, said that Trump nomiantions may have cost his party “15 to 20 seats.”
Now Republicans themselves are starting to question the role Trump played in the midterms, especially in comparison to the work being done by one of his big rivals for the Republican presidential primary for 2024.
What threat does Ron DeSantis pose to Donald Trump?
While Trump-backed candidates did not make as good headway as some thought they might, the big Republican success story came down in Florida. Governor Ron DeSantis won a landslide reelection, albeit against a very weak Democrat candidate once of GOP persuasion. In the rest of the state Republicans took 20 of 28 House seats as well as comfortable retianing Marco Rubio’s Senate seat. While Trump’s support actively hurt the Republicans, Florida was unaffected and DeSantis’ standing in the party has been greatly enhanced.
The two Republican heavyweights came to blows on the campaign trail. Just a week before the election Trump called him Ron “DeSanctimonious” in a typically Trumpian put-down. Just last night Trump also attacked any presidential ambitions of his rival.
“I don’t know if he is running. I think if he runs, he could hurt himself very badly. I really believe he could hurt himself badly,” Trump said, “I don’t think it would be good for the party.”
“I would tell you things about him that won’t be very flattering – I know more about him than anybody – other than, perhaps, his wife.”
Neither person has formally announced their bid at this stage. Trump has said that he would make a “very big announcement” on 15 November, likely concerning the next presidential campaign. Whatever he announces, the Trump brand has been tarnished badly by these elections at the expense of the man who is likely the new favourite to replace him.