What was the last “Big One” and when do experts expect the next catastrophic earthquake to hit?

Earthquakes are deadly natural phenomena that have caused hundreds of thousands of deaths at a time in different parts of the world. California, which sits on the earthquake-prone “Ring of Fire,” which encompasses the land masses that border the Pacific Ocean, is also home to the San Andreas fault. This fault represents the meeting point of two tectonic plates, which creates high levels of seismic activity.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, scientists do not have a way to predict when and where major earthquakes will appear. The best that experts can do is calculate the probability that a significant earthquake will take place in a particular area within a time frame of years.

Strong quakes can cause devastating damage, especially if they hit densely populated areas. Forbes says an earthquake that is referred to as “The Big One” has a magnitude of at least 7.8.

What was the last “big one” and when do experts expect the next catastrophic earthquake to hit?

Going by this definition, the quake that hit Alaska in 2021 falls under this category. It had a magnitude of 8.2, but thankfully claimed no fatalities and caused no serious damage. The limited effects of the event were attributed to it taking place offshore from an area with a small population.

It’s a different matter when talking about urbanized areas which house a dense population. A scientific forecast issued 10 years ago indicated that there was an almost 50% chance that at least one earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.5 will strike California within the following 30 years. The US Geological Survey says that the threat of a major quake hitting the Bay Area is real and that the possible catastrophic event “is likely [to occur] before 2032.”

As scientists expect fearsome earthquakes in the area to take place every 150 to 200 years, it appears that The Big One has taken its time in coming, and could occur without warning at any time.