As the election approaches, many people turn to the polls to assess the current state of the race. However, before you get overwhelmed by analyzing complex data, it’s important to remember that polls are merely snapshots in time. Some voters who say they intend to participate may ultimately choose not to, while others who claim they will sit out the election might end up casting a ballot.

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Current polls indicate a tight race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump. Both candidates have a vested interest in keeping the polls competitive, as they rely on these numbers to energize their supporters. If the polls indicated a decisive lead for one candidate, the projected loser might see a decline in voter turnout, feeling discouraged by the apparent hopelessness of their situation. Conversely, if one candidate is leading by a large margin, their supporters might become complacent, believing that victory is assured without their participation.

Focusing on the swing states

Since the Electoral College determines the presidency in the United States, this analysis examines the pollsters who accurately predicted the election outcomes in six key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. If we maintain the 2020 electoral map while excluding the Electoral College votes from these six states, the Democrats would have 232 votes, and the Republicans would have 219.

Marist College in Arizona and Pennsylvania

In 2020, Marist College accurately predicted that Joe Biden would win Arizona. This year, the last poll on the state of the race in Arizona found Donald Trump holding a slight lead, but it was within the margin of error. However, the pollsters did note that Kamala Harris had a ten-point lead among independent voters.

As for Pennsylvania, Marist College found Kamala Harris with a two-point lead over Donald Trump, though those results are still within the margin of error. In 2020, this situation forecasted a win for Joe Biden in the state.

Quinnipiac in Georgia

In mid-October 2020, Quinnipiac University’s pollsters showed Joe Biden ahead of Donald Trump by a 51 to 44 percent margin. He won the Peach State by 0.23 percent.

Quinnipiac‘s most recent poll, released on October 16, 2024, showed Trump ahead of Harris by seven points, almost the opposite result the pollsters reported in 2020. The margin of error is ± 3.0 percent, meaning Trump, according to this poll, holds a statistically significant lead over Harris.

AtlasIntel in Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin

AtlasIntel was one of the polling agencies most effective in predicting the outcomes of many state elections in 2020, including those in Michigan and North Carolina. In Michigan, the agency reported that Biden was leading Trump by 2 points in 2020. This year, their poll indicates that Donald Trump is leading Kamala Harris by 1 point, which falls within the margin of error.

Nearly all major pollsters got North Carolina wrong in 2020, but with Trump winning by 1.34 percent, it was anyone’s race.

In late October 2020, AtlasIntel projected Donald Trump to win with a two-point lead over his rival. Currently, the same agency has Donald Trump leading by four points, based on surveys conducted between by two points, based on surveys conducted between October 30 and 31. The margin of error that poll was three percent, meaning AtlasIntel’s data indicates that Trump’s lead is outside of that range.

The group projected correctly that Biden would win Wisconsin in 2020, and their latest poll shows Donald Trump and Kamala Harris so close it is impossible to say that either candidate has a notable lead.