Wholesale egg prices are down: This is when experts believe we will see retail prices fall

It remains uncertain how the cost of eggs will evolve in the United States in the near future, despite a recent drop in wholesale prices.

Amid a spate of bird flu outbreaks that have killed millions of egg-laying birds and severely dented the U.S.’s egg supply, American consumers have found themselves forking out sky-high prices for the dairy product.

In February, shoppers in the U.S. paid an average of $5.90 per dozen Grade A eggs, according to the country’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s around two and half times the going rate in mid-2023.

How much have wholesale egg prices fallen by?

But America now appears to be bringing its bird-flu epidemic under control, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reporting in its Egg Markets Overview on Friday that it is now “nearly a month” since the last major outbreak.

This has helped to reduce American wholesale egg prices, which have now dropped by nearly 50% since the end of February, the USDA said on Thursday: from $8.53 per dozen to $4.08.

However, industry experts say retail customers won’t necessarily be able to count on significantly cheaper eggs right away - particularly with the Easter and Passover holiday period just around the corner.

Consumers can expect a lag between wholesale and retail sectors

In an update on the progress of the USDA’s strategy to combat bird flu and reduce egg prices, agriculture secretary Brooke Rollins said this week: “I know for some of us who are shopping that we’ve seen egg prices drop immediately, which has been true for me.

“But then we’ll hear from people in other parts of the country where they have yet to see that reduction on their grocery store shelf.”

Karyn Rispoli, the managing editor of the price-reporting service Expana, also warns that consumers may need to be patient. Per Axios, Rispoli says there is normally a lag of a few weeks before changes in wholesale prices have a noticeable effect on the retail sector.

In its Egg Markets Overview, the USDA said consumers are “slowly beginning to see downward price adjustments”, but noted that it “remains to be seen” how “price-weary” consumers are impacted during Easter and Passover.

Rollins has warned that egg prices may tick back upwards due to the “unusually high” demand that is typical of holiday seasons - and Kevin Bergquist, an egg analyst for the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, agrees.

“In the short term, we will likely see a continuation of high egg prices,” Bergquist said in a market report earlier this month, per CNBC.

Easter Sunday is on April 20, while the Passover festival lasts from April 12 to 20.

U.S. looks abroad to boost egg supply

In a statement on the progress of its five-pronged egg strategy, the USDA said it has agreed deals to import eggs from Turkey and South Korea, “with discussions ongoing with other countries to further expand supply in the short term”.

It has been reported in the U.S. media that Denmark is among the other potential exporters that America has turned to.

The USDA also says it has taken steps such as investing $100 million in bird flu research and vaccine development, and working to strengthen biosecurity measures in the U.S.

“Egg prices are falling, farmers are getting the relief they need, and we are seeing meaningful progress in the fight against avian flu,” Rollins said.

“USDA is making targeted investments and driving innovation to keep our food supply strong and affordable”.

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