Why is ISIS attacking Russia?

A group of men armed with automatic rifles yesterday carried out a major terrorist attack near Russia’s capital in Kasnogorsk, just miles away from the Kremlin on Friday night. The tragic events have taken the lives of 115 people and left hundreds more injured and scarred by the attack. The attack occurred at approximately 8:00 p.m. local time (17:00 GMT) at a rock concert for the group Piknik.

Initial reports from the Federal Security Service (FSB) set the death toll at 40, but that figure quickly began to rise as authorities uncovered the severity of what had taken place. The attackers had brought an accelerant with them, which ignited the building, making it harder for the large crowd to exit as the gunman unloaded their automatic weapons. This is the first major terrorist attack in Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

In the security camera images, you can see how at least four men dressed in camouflage clothing begin to shoot without any control in the glass-enclosed shopping center, where many music stars have performed since 2009.

Previous threats

ISIS-K, as US intelligence officials refer to it, claimed responsibility for the attack. The group is a regional offshoot of ISIS located in Afghanistan. The scale of the attack caught many by surprise, but various Western embassies, including the United States, had warned their nationals in Russia about the possibility of an imminent attack, with big events like concerts being likely targets.

“The Embassy is monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts and U.S. citizens should be advised to avoid large gatherings over the next 48 hours,” read a statement from the US embassy published on 7 March.

The day before, the FSB announced that it had neutralized an Islamic State cell in the province of Kaluga that intended to attack a synagogue in Moscow. Just a week before, the forces Security forces eliminated six alleged jihadists in an operation in Ingushetia, in the North Caucasus.

Incident in Kabul

The ISIS branch that had operated in Russia, known as ‘Wilayat al Quqaz,’ or Islamic State – Caucasus Province, was founded by extremist Rustam Asildarov in 2015 but reportedly ceased activity after the Asildarov was assassination by the Russian Government in Dagestan in December 2016.

However, that does not mean that Russia has been free from ISIS attacks.

In September 2015, at the request of President Bashar al Assad, Russia began to support the Syrian government against the opposition rebels and the jihadist groups, including ISIS. Russian intervention was crucial for quelling the rebellion and defeating the Islamic State, which had annexed territories in Syria to its ‘caliphate’ in Iraq.

Additionally, the Russian government chose to maintain its embassy in Kabul after the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan, which frustrated ISIS leaders as they were in an open conflict with the Taliban. On September 5, 2023, an attack claimed by ISIS was carried out near the Russian embassy in Kabul, where the second secretary and a security guard died.