Will hurricane Rafael hit the US this weekend? Path, trajectory and possible affected states

Politics aside, it has been a turbulent month for weather. Two devastating hurricanes hit the southern US and many would have been hoping the storm season would be drawing to a close soon.

In fact, more storms abound. Hurricane Rafael, after making landfall in Cuba as a powerful Category 3 storm, is now moving into the Gulf of Mexico. Cuba’s already weak power system, hamstrung by a 50-year blockade by the US, was knocked out by the storm.

As with all hurricanes at this time of year, there are concerns whether Rafael will strike the US.

As of late Wednesday, the hurricane’s center was located approximately 80 miles northwest of Havana and 135 miles west-southwest of Key West, Florida, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. The storm is currently moving northwest at about 13 mph, a trajectory that is expected to continue for the next few days and taking it away from the US.

The current forecast suggests that Rafael may never reach the US mainland, with some models projecting a turn to the west or southwest in the Gulf of Mexico this weeken.

Why the storm will avoid the US

A high-pressure ridge is likely to steer the storm westward, away from the Florida peninsula. Coupled with this, hostile weather conditions in the Gulf, including strong wind shear, dry air, and cooler water, are anticipated to weaken the hurricane significantly. It has already weakend to a Category 2 hurricane.

The storm’s eventual path and intensity will become clearer in the coming days as it moves through the Gulf of Mexico.