Space

For now, Earth is safe, but this asteroid could collide with the Moon: here are the potential effects

The famous asteroid YR4 has a new target after passing ‘close’ to the Blue Planet in 2032: our Moon. What would happen in the event of an impact?

Cristian Ciuraneta Catalán

Update: Apr 9th, 2026 22:34 CEST

The possibility that a large asteroid might one day collide with Earth has terrified humanity for centuries—an unlikely but by no means impossible scenario that has been explored time and again in fiction. Without going any further, films such as ‘Armageddon’, ‘Deep Impact’, or the more recent ‘Don’t Look Up’ address these possibilities in very different ways, yet with the same outcome: the end of humanity. Be that as it may, science has been studying this phenomenon for decades, including issuing warnings about potential impacts years in advance after carefully studying the trajectories of our planet and those of celestial bodies. This very scenario occurred in 2025 with the famous asteroid 2024 YR4 and its potential impact with Earth in 2032.

Asteroid YR4 Is Now Heading Toward Our Moon

In early 2025, there was speculation that the asteroid known as 2024 YR4—measuring between 130 and 197 feet—might collide with Earth, causing devastating damage in the impact zone. However, with a probability of just over 1%, it was highly unlikely to happen—a conclusion that was confirmed in May of last year after more detailed observations were made, refining its orbit and identifying a new, much more plausible target: the Moon.

For now, Earth is safe, but this asteroid could collide with the Moon: here are the potential effects

It is estimated that there is a 3.8% to 4.3% chance that asteroid 2024 YR4 will collide with the Moon on December 22, 2032. Such an impact would release the equivalent of 6.5 megatons of TNT and create a crater 0.62 miles in diameter on the lunar surface. Such an impact would eject 100 million kilograms of debris into space through an impressive cloud of lunar material.

What consequences would a lunar impact have on Earth?

Although the impact would not occur on Earth’s surface, the truth is that our planet would suffer physical and visual consequences resulting from such a cosmic event. Most likely, some of this lunar debris would enter Earth’s atmosphere, drawn in by our planet’s gravity, creating a meteor shower unlike anything seen before. That said, the fragments would be small enough to disintegrate upon contact with our atmosphere, so there would be no danger of collision—or, at most, only a minimal one.