‘Joker 2′ hits $200 million at the box office, but remains far from profitable

‘Joker: Folie à Deux’ has been one of the most controversial films of 2024 for its portrayal of the Joker, Batman’s most iconic villain. The Todd Phillips film, starring Joaquin Phoenix and Lady Gaga, finally crossed $200 million at the box office in its third week of release after a torturous run. This is enough for Warner Bros. to cover its production costs, but the film is still unprofitable for one key reason: it would have to make twice as much to cover marketing and distribution costs.

The 2.5 times rule in movies and how it affects ‘Joker: Folie à Deux’

In the film world, it is widely accepted that for a movie to be considered “profitable”, it must gross twice its production cost. This is because other additional costs such as marketing, localization or distribution costs are not part of the feature film budget itself. Although this is an approximate figure, these additional costs are usually included in this expected box office return of more than twice the cost of the film when the film is considered profitable or a failure.

In the case of ‘Joker: Folie à Deux’, it managed to reach 200 million at the box office in its third weekend after its release on October 4th. This means that although this figure seems to have ensured that at least Warner Bros. did not lose money, since the movie also cost 200 million, when the additional costs are taken into account, this sequel to ‘Joker’ continues to be unprofitable and its trajectory suggests that it will end up making its production company lose money.

In mid-October, several insiders predicted that ‘Joker 2′ would gross around $215 million after its theatrical run, and those predictions seem to be coming true. The estimated cost of distribution, marketing and localization is another $100 million, so in this case the 2.5 times rule is met, and Warner Bros. estimates would put the target box office at $450 million, although the film’s performance analysis suggests it will not even reach $375 million.

It would have to add to its box office receipts the profits from home releases on the usual formats, such as DVD and Blu-ray, and from purchases and rentals on digital platforms. Its imminent arrival on content platforms, which means that it will not remain in cinemas for even a month, highlights its poor performance in cinemas.

Ultimately, the sequel to 2019′s critically acclaimed Joker became one of 2024′s biggest box office disasters, joining other dismal performers like Borderlands and Argyle. The failure of such high-profile films shows that the blockbuster model is not always sustainable. Even with top actors such as Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Cate Blanchett, or Henry Cavill, there are times when their appeal in the cinema does not outweigh what is perceived as a bad film, leading to their financial collapse, which can even affect the reputation of these stars.